Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
000
FXUS64 KLIX 232336
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Under sunny skies and a zonal/progressive upper flow regime,
temperatures have warmed across the region. With the surface flow
veering to a more onshore flow with the surface high departing
stage east, some better low level moisture has started to creep
northward back into the area. This will limit critical fire
weather concerns this afternoon.
Overnight, the upper level flow will transition to a dry
northwesterly flow and a surface front will make an attempt to
near the region. Although low level moisture influx has been weak,
there is still a weak SREF signal for lower visibilities,
especially across southwest Mississippi, where some shallow fog
isn`t out of the realm of possibility, especially if some moisture
pool develops ahead of a stalling front just upstream over central
MS/AL.
On Wednesday, outside of some scattered high clouds, the story
will be temperatures (and that isn`t even much of a story). With a
continuation of increasing heights, temperatures should continue
to increase gradually...both MaxT`s and MinT`s. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
The long term period starts with the stalled front just to our
north and east. Again, ahead of the front there could be some
morning fog, however, as pressure gradient tightens between a high
to our east and a strengthening surface low over the high plains,
this will become less of a concern late in the week. The
northwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of a ridge axis over
Texas will eventually transition to a southwesterly flow by Friday
as a strong H5 trough begins to amplify over the central plains.
This trough will suppress the upper ridge across the Gulf of
Mexico...as such the heights and thicknesses will increase across
our region allowing for the warming trend to continue before
balancing out later in the weekend or early next week.
A cold front stalls upstream early in the weekend close to the
Sabine River and ArkLaTex region. This will likely keep most rain
chances up that way this weekend. A strong mid and upper level
impulse amplifies and takes the same path roughly as the prior
weaker impulse. This feature looks to move the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary eastward toward our area early next week.
As it does, we`ll likely start seeing an uptick and scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially across our western tier
counties/parishes late Monday or early Tuesday. Still low
confidence in timing and precip probs, but we`ll fine tune going
into the weekend. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
VFR conditions across all terminals at issuance time this evening.
That should remain the case through the forecast period at most
terminals, with the exception being KMCB, where radiation fog
formation could produce MVFR to IFR visibilities for a couple
hours around sunrise. With moisture levels slowly increasing,
could see some cumulus clouds develop by late morning or early
afternoon Wednesday. However, cloud bases are likely to remain
above FL030.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Fairly benign marine conditions early on in the forecast period.
Onshore flow is anticipated to develop and gradually strengthen
through the week. During the afternoons, winds could be enhanced
over the MS Sound and Tidal Lakes. May need short fused Cautionary
headlines or even SCA if the forecast trends up even just
slightly. The pressure gradient increases on Friday and through
the weekend where Cautionary headlines and/or SCAs look to be a
safe bet across the local waters. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 52 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 57 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 55 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF