955
FXUS65 KLKN 032047
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
147 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Robust weather system impacts the forecast region
Saturday and Sunday with strong winds and accumulating rain and
snow expected. Low probabilities for precipitation contnue early
next week with mostly dry weather expected by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night

Weather remains fair tonight with light and variable winds and
increasing cloud cover from the northwest the latter half of the
night. Overnight low temperatures reside mostly in the 30s.

Robust upper low and strong attendant cold front begin influencing
the forecast area Saturday morning as the feature moves into
NorCal and Nevada. Dynamically driven weather is expected with an
increase in south/southwesterly winds Saturday. Advisory and
warnining level winds will persist into Saturday night with blowing
dust and damaging gusts around 60 mph expected for central Nevada
including the US-50 corridor where the high wind warnings are in
place. Advisory level sustained winds of around 30 mph are
expected across much of southern and eastern Elko county. Strong
winds trend lighter while shifting northwesterly in conjunction
with the frontal passage Saturday night. That said, winds
ceratinly remain at least breezy into Sunday morning. Cold front
also brings widespread rain and snow showers to the forecast
region with activity generally focused within a broad band
situated along the front. Main concern will be rapidly lowering
snow levels Saturday night. Based on timing of the frontal
progression, White Pine County will be the primary focus of
accumulating snow Saturday night and into Sunday morning. IMpacts
will also be felt across the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt Range as well
as northern Elko County. Lower probabiloities for accumulatiing
snow elsewhere. Pass routes across the eastern half of the
foreacst area likely see slush ups and light accumulations which
will be primarily snowfall rate driven, and produce adverse travel
conditions late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Most valley
snow totals Saturday night will be around an inch or less. Pass
routes in and near WHite Pine COunty, where the greatest impacts
are expected, could see 2-5 inches of accumulation. Daytime high
temperatures reside in the low 60s to low 70s with overnight lows
pluimmeting to the low 20s to mow 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

A low pressure system and cold front is expected to move across
the forecast area Sunday through Monday, bringing gusty winds,
cooler temperatures, and snow showers. Winds will pick up in the
afternoon out of the west-northwest to 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35
mph.

Snow levels lower to about 4500-5000 feet by Sunday morning. Light
snow showers are possible in the valley locations with some of
the locations in central Nevada receiving one to three inches
along US Highway 50. Some locally higher amounts will be possible
in the high mountain areas of White Pine County, Northern Elko
County, and the Ruby Mountains. A 20% chance of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms exist in portions of central and northern
NV as the cold front moves southeastward.

By Monday, the trough moves moves east with lingering showers and
breezy winds. On the heels of the exiting trough, an upper level
wave moves through northern NV Monday afternoon, bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-80. Northwest
flow continues mid to late next week with mostly dry conditions
over the region. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the
20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier locales.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals through
tonight. A strong low pressure system from the northwest will
approach the region by Saturday. Breezy winds from the S-SW
expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 20-25 knots with
gusts as high as 30-40 knots at northern terminal sites. Gusts
will reach to 40-50 knots at KELY and KTPH, with BLDU possible
given the strong winds.

Meanwhile, increasing mid to upper-level cloud cover (5KFT and
above) will move from west to east as the system moves across the
area. -SHRA/VCSH expected at KWMC and KBAM Saturday morning and
afternoon with CIGs lowering to MVFR conditions at times, but
confidence is low.

KWMC is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. A strong low pressure system will bring widespread
rain and mountian snow to much of northern and central Nevada
over the weekend. Over half an inch of liquid equivalent
precipitation is expected across north central Nevada in
northwestern Elko county where most of the flood concerns remain.
This will increase flows on several streams and rivers.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for
the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in
minor flood stage and is expected to remain in minor flood stage
for the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain
in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City currently resdies near action
stage. The river is forecast to contiue to reside and slightly
fluctuate around action stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday South
Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday
Northeastern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...White Pine County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Northwestern
Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Southwest Elko
County.

&&

$$

92/90/90