Text Products for FWS Issued by LWX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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FNUS71 KLWX 221543
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Chimney Rock Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1143 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny skies are expected on Tuesday. Winds will gradually pick up
out of the south over the course of the day, with gusts of 20-30 mph
possible during the late afternoon hours. Minimum RH values should
be around 35 percent. Chances for a few showers will move in Tuesday
night, although the majority of the night should remain dry. RH values
should rebound to around 75-80 percent. Chances for showers will
gradually decrease through the day Wednesday, with winds turning out
of the west and then northwest. Gusts to around 20-30 mph will be
possible during the afternoon hours. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
should be around 45 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 6 mph increasing to south around
                    24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (93500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (103200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  14  12  11  12  11  11  14  14  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............45  51  54  57  60  62  63  64  65  65
RH..............58  48  43  40  37  36  35  34  34  35
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   7   9   10  12  12  12  12  13  13
20 FT wind gust.6   9   13  15  17  18  20  21  22  22
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   4   5   6   7   7   7   7   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.4   5   8   9   10  11  12  13  13  13
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.1   6   13  18  20  20  20  22  24  24
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   8   39  82  94  92  87  103 117 109
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 13 mph after 3 am.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 12 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the west around 9 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........29     54     68     75     92     97
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      10     30     30
Temp............64     60     57     54     52     51
RH..............37     44     51     57     63     68
20 ft wind......S 13   S 12   S 12   S 12   SW 10  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.21     17     18     17     16     18
Eye level wind..S 8    S 7    S 7    S 7    SW 6   SW 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.13     10     11     10     10     11
Transport wind..S 21   S 12   S 10   S 12   SW 10  W 9
Haines index....5      4      5      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..65     1      0      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning and early afternoon,
                    then slight chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent early in the morning, then decreasing
to 20 percent late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 11 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph shifting to the northwest around 11 mph
                    with gusts to around 19 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 14 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 31 mph.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 21
                    to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (77100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (93200
                    knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........82     57     36     36     40     33
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30     40     40     40     20     20
Temp............51     52     57     60     61     62
RH..............74     74     62     55     51     46
20 ft wind......W 14   W 15   W 17   W 18   NW 18  NW 18
20 ft wind gust.21     23     26     30     31     30
Eye level wind..W 8    W 9    W 10   W 11   NW 11  NW 11
Eye lvl wnd gst.13     14     16     18     19     18
Transport wind..W 12   NW 16  W 22   W 24   NW 22  NW 21
Haines index....4      4      3      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5      17     77     122    110    103
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

$$
Forecaster...Pallozzi
Requested by...J.Seabright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411743.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeffrey_Seabright@nps.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
