996
FXUS64 KLZK 282355
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection across much of
the forecast area.  This activity is supported by persistent
southerly low level flow, acting on outflow boundaries and a
remaining cold dome created by previous morning convection.

19z instability analysis indicates that the previous convection has
affected available instability due to overturning across all but
southeast sections of the forecast area. Minor recovery is expected
through late afternoon. Latest CAM output has been consistent with
earlier runs regarding developing a linear type MCS late this
afternoon across central Oklahoma, where instability is much higher.
This system then will move east across the forecast area overnight.
This system should provide impactful rainfall rates.  The greatest
chance for organized severe convection will be across extreme
southwest sections of the forecast area.

Some residual activity will end from west to east during the day
Monday. Dry conditions are expected for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast at
times from Wed-Fri across the state. At the sfc, warm/humid
conditions will persist across much of the region with above normal
temperatures likely each day.

Aloft, H500 flow will largely be out of the SW ahead of a trough
moving from the western US toward the Great Lakes. Mid-level ridging
is expected to build across the SE US which will further influence
the amplified flow across the region.

Ahead of the trough, several weak disturbances traversing the SW
flow will help contribute to showers and thunderstorms developing
across the area. By late week a developing sfc cyclone is expected
to drag a cold front across the state which will help focus precip
development across AR while the H500 trough swings northeast of the
area.

Somewhat cooler temperatures along with a brief break in rain
chances are possible in the wake of these systems as sfc ridging
builds in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Precipitation continues to increase in intensity and coverage to
the west of the terminals and will move eastward with time, likely
weakening somewhat as it does. VFR conditions initially will
decrease to MVFR and possibly IFR as the precipitation shield
builds over the area as a cold front swings through. Conditions
will slowly improve behind the boundary, eventually returning to
VFR by its conclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  64  76  58 /  50 100  70  10
Camden AR         82  63  78  59 /  40 100  60  10
Harrison AR       74  59  77  54 /  80  90  10   0
Hot Springs AR    79  62  79  58 /  50 100  30   0
Little Rock   AR  81  65  78  62 /  40 100  60  10
Monticello AR     84  66  76  63 /  30  90  80  10
Mount Ida AR      79  60  81  57 /  60 100  30   0
Mountain Home AR  76  59  78  55 /  70 100  20   0
Newport AR        81  65  76  60 /  40 100  70  10
Pine Bluff AR     82  65  75  61 /  30  90  80  10
Russellville AR   78  62  80  58 /  80 100  30   0
Searcy AR         79  64  77  58 /  30 100  80  10
Stuttgart AR      81  66  75  62 /  30  90  80  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ004-005-014-024-031-
032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...56