713
FXUS64 KLZK 090428 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1128 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Data from local radars indicate that the forecast area is
currently precipitation free. Activity in central and southwest
Missouri continues to slowly increase in coverage and intensity.

Forecasts continue to reflect expected convective evolution this
afternoon and evening.

A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to promote
explosive convective development this afternoon. The convection
then should form in a linear fashion, as it approaches the
forecast area. Instability and vertical wind profiles support
thunderstorms capable of all hazards late this afternoon and
evening. Of particular note is a near term parameter space
supporting giant hail in the western half of the forecast area.

This thunderstorm episode should move south and east of the
forecast area by sunrise Thursday. The previously mentioned front
will be in the vicinity of southern sections to support widely
scattered shower development Thursday afternoon.

Expect noticeably drier and cooler conditions for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

High pressure will accompany the upper level ridge as it attempts to
build over the Southern Plains. This will provide a continued chance
of cooler and drier air for the majority of the weekend with max/min
temperatures ranging about 5-7 degrees below seasonal normals. Rain
chances will be re-introduced by the second half of Sunday as the
Southwest flow returns and Gulf moisture returns to the midsouth.
The GFS is indicating a cutoff low to move right over North Arkansas
on Tuesday with a brief clearing ahead of the next weather system
expected in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Scattered strong/SVR TSRA will continue to drop ESE into the
overnight hrs...eventually dropping SE of AR by before sunrise
Thu. Expect some MVFR conditions with this activity...with some
improvements in the wake of this convection. NRLY flow will bring
drier air into the area...with dominant VFR conditions expected
for the latter half of this TAF period. Some additional SHRA may
return for late Thu afternoon/evening for central/SRN sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  84  55  75 /  70  10  10   0
Camden AR         69  86  60  79 /  70  20  30   0
Harrison AR       56  77  52  72 /  70  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    66  85  59  79 /  70  10  20   0
Little Rock   AR  67  86  60  78 /  80  10  10   0
Monticello AR     71  87  62  78 /  60  20  30   0
Mount Ida AR      64  84  58  79 /  60  20  20   0
Mountain Home AR  60  78  52  73 /  80   0   0   0
Newport AR        65  82  57  75 /  80   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  84  60  77 /  80  10  20   0
Russellville AR   62  84  57  78 /  60  10  10   0
Searcy AR         65  83  56  76 /  80  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      67  83  60  74 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...62