Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 082044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082044
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-082215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Areas affected...southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082044Z - 082215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across southern New England.
DISCUSSION...A large supercell has developed in southern
Massachusetts where temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. This has yielded 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE.
Despite this relatively weak instability, storm organization due to
70 knots of 0-6km shear (per BOX VWP), has been sufficient for
supercell maintenance. This intense storm will continue to pose a
severe wind and large hail threat as it moves east and the
downstream environment continues to destabilize ahead of it. In
addition, some storms are starting to develop to the west of this
supercell on the trailing outflow. Given a similarly warm and
unstable environment, one or two more strong to severe storms may
form and move along this outflow boundary this afternoon/evening.
..Bentley/Smith.. 05/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 41887391 42287322 42597149 42417095 41847080 41447076
41387114 41127173 41087259 41007341 41097377 41297399
41887391