Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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877 ACUS11 KWNS 062318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062318 IAZ000-070115- Mesoscale Discussion 0661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 062318Z - 070115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will move east-northeast out of Nebraska into western and eventually parts of central Iowa. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Aided my the mid-level shortwave trough, a line of convection continues to the east-northeast in eastern Nebraska. This will likely continue into parts of western into central Iowa this evening. Dewpoints have risen into the low 60s F in the mid-Missouri Valley. Though overall destabilization has not been robust due to cloud cover, the upper-level forcing and continued moisture advection should promote some severe threat. Regional VAD profiles from KFSD/KOAX/KDMX show ample low-level shear in place. This shear should remain and increase as the low-level jet intensifies and moves east. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes will be possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed this evening. The primary uncertainty will be how far north/northwest the severe threat will be. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40689462 41629511 42709641 42939647 43299620 43299572 42619440 40629387 40689462