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000
FXUS64 KMEG 110233
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
933 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Evening radar analysis places the western portions of the Mid-
South along the leading edge of another band of precipitation that
will affect the region starting tonight. This area of
precipitation could result in instances of flash flooding where
soils remain saturated from recent rainfall. Precipitation should
gradually taper off throughout the day tomorrow, as the axis of
the upper level trough swings through the region. Strong winds are
still concern starting overnight tonight and lasting through
tomorrow evening, as sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
50 mph are possible. A wind advisory is in effect for the Mid-
South from 3 AM to 5 PM Thursday. The current forecast is on track
with no changes planned or needed.

JPR

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Shower activity will persist through Thursday afternoon with
additional rainfall totals of 2 inches possible in north
Mississippi. Flooding will continue to be a concern until showers
dissipate Thursday afternoon. Dry and pleasant conditions will
return on Friday and last through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Wet and unsettled conditions will persist over the next 24 hours
as a low pressure system and cold front impact the region.
Numerous rounds of showers will accompany this system with areas
in north Mississippi forecast to see an additional 2 inches of
rain through Thursday afternoon. Soil saturations across the
region are above 70% due to recent rains. In addition, several
rivers and creeks have reported rapid rises near bankfull. As
such, flooding remains a concern as additional rounds of rainfall
impact the area. A brief lull in precipitation is forecast to
develop this evening as the aforementioned low pressure system
pushes into Middle TN. However, most recent CAMs depict
development of wraparound showers by sunrise Thursday. Expect this
activity to be relatively light in coverage and intensity before
dissipating in the afternoon.

The greatest concern on Thursday will be strong winds developing
ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Sustained winds of 25 to
30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will begin impacting the Mid-South
overnight tonight and persist through Thursday afternoon. As such,
an areawide Wind Advisory has been issued. There exists potential
for large trees to blow down with these winds due to soils being
saturated. Take time now to secure any loose objects.

Upper level ridging will return on Friday with zonal flow aloft in
place by early Sunday morning. As such, expect a dry and pleasant
weekend with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Long
range models continue to depict a shortwave trough ejecting across
the Central Plains on Monday before impacting the Mid-South late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Exact impacts from this system are too
early to tell, but this may be the next best chance for rainfall
in the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Primary near-term forecast concern is TS chances this evening.
GOES GLM and surface lightning detection showed isolated returns over
western half of AR, to the northwest of 998mb surface low over
the Arklamiss and immediately downstream of a deep midlevel
trough. SPC Mesoanalysis showed weaker convective instability to
the east, across the Midsouth.

As the upper trough lifts east, midlevel lapse rates will steepen.
Modest convective instability aside, HREF ensemble depicts a
marked uptick in lightning probability by 03Z. The HREF has over-
forecasted lightning coverage as of late. Given TCF areas of
sparse coverage near JBR and TUP around 03-05Z, will maintain a
VCTS at MEM through most of the late evening inbound push.
Thereafter, lightning potential will shift to northeast MS and
wane overnight as the midlevel trough axis lifts east of MEM.

Strong northwest surface winds will be primary impact on Thursday,
peaking during the mid/late morning.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB