921
FXUS62 KMFL 081125
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Warm and dry conditions will be the story through the short term
period as ridging builds over the region. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be very limited between PWAT values dropping to
around 1" and overall subsidence from the ridge. Under mostly
clear skies, high temperatures today will soar into the upper 80s
across the East Coast metro, with low to mid 90s across interior
and Gulf Coast areas. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on
Thursday as the ridge continues to build in and the airmass heats
up. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s along the East
Coast metro and Gulf Coast, with mid to even upper 90s over
interior areas. Heat index values may reach the triple digits in
some areas, and will need to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

As we wrap up the week, the surface ridge axis will remain
sitting over South FL allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions
on Friday. The warming trend will to continue with widespread 90
degree high temperatures across the region. Some inland portions
of South Florida could see temperatures reach the upper 90s. The
heat indices will approach the upper 90s into low 100s, especially
for the inland regions of the eastern counties.

The next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United
States late Friday as a Canadian upper level low and trough make
their way into the eastern CONUS. With increasing moisture, it will
lead to our next opportunity for showers and thunderstorm activity
on Saturday. However, the front is expected to weaken as it
progresses across the FL Peninsula. Therefore, current models are
not forecasting much activity and rainfall associated with this
front as it moves south and settles across South FL through the
weekend. The EURO ensemble & Canadian are showing the most
confidence in rainfall with 30-50% chance of rain across land and
the Atlantic waters with less than 0.10" expected. Low confidence in
specifics at the moment due to varying forecasts between the models.
Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and
rainfall. However, Saturday appears it will be more of a transition
day where the temperatures could again reach well into the 90s, most
likely over the east coast metro. With heat indices approaching 100
again, caution needs to be taken when spending time outdoors with
heat safety measures in place.

When looking further into the extended outlook, temperatures
continue to remain above normal, in the 90s, with more active
weather to begin the start of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds will increase out of the southeast around 15z and
will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon. At KAPF, winds
will become southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue through
Thursday across most of the local waters. The exception to this
will be over the Gulf waters where winds will shift to the
southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds will
gradually become south to southwesterly across all local waters
heading towards the end of the week as a frontal boundary
approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while seas
across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The rip current risk will remain elevated throughout the rest of
the week across the Atlantic Coast beaches, with the highest
chances of rip currents remaining over the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  76  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     90  74  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        89  75  91  74 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        87  75  89  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  88  76  89  75 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  89  75  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   89  75  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  90  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       89  75  89  74 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           91  74  89  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...CWC