844
FXUS62 KMHX 030530
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
130 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another
cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight
chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 935 PM Thu... Not much has changed since the previous
update as latest obs show clear skies and light winds across ENC
this evening. Expect over the next few hours for patchy fog to
develop especially around the Crystal Coast and lift N`wards
overnight. The only caveat to this is if a weak gradient can
maintain itself overnight there would be a very low chance we
remain fog free tonight across ENC. However given the continued
support from the Hi-res guidance, clear skies, and already light
winds have kept fog in the forecast across the region with the
potential for dense fog across the southern half of the CWA
still in play. High res model suite and HREF probs are
highlighting a 60-80% chance for less than 1 mile visibilities
in this area with closer to 10-30% probs from about Lenoir,
Northern Craven, and Beaufort counties north and the fog
forecast reflects this. May need a headline DFA at some point
tonight depending on how fog covg and density evolves. Winds
will be calm to light ssw overnight. Otherwise lows get down
into the low 60s across the region tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 303 PM Thu...After morning fog burns off, another very
warm day on tap, with highs into the mid and upr 80s interior,
to 70s coast as a dry sea breeze develops once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions
become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain chances
on Sunday

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs
and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled
conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday
morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang
around through the period due to the lingering nature the front,
but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week
(25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be
a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold
front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s
beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area
Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and
remnants of the weekend`s front/SFC trough will lead to some
precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to
reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0115 Friday...VFR flight cats make way to subVFR with fog
expected to develop overnight. Best chance for coastal TAF sites
with inland sites being more uncertain. Fog could become dense
at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would result
in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Inland TAF
sites will possibly see MVFR VIS conditions and considering how
often PGV reports IFR/LIFR VIS for less than impactful fog, have
added TEMPO IFR groups for ISO and PGV. VFR returns after fog
dissipates a few hrs after sunrise.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next
week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with
Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower
CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 303 PM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period.
Winds will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the
day but will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they
transition to southerly and then eventually southwesterly by
later tonight. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

May be dense fog again for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers
once again, esp further south in the srn/ctrl coastal waters,
Pamlico Sound, and Neuse/Pamlico rivers later this evening into
early Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected through
the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the
best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to
the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south
into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10
kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape
Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas
pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be
ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas
remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL/OJC
LONG TERM...JME/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB