777
FXUS62 KMHX 290707
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Given how active this time of year could be, the weather is
expected to be remarkably quiet today thanks to mid/upper level
ridging overhead. At the surface, high pressure has slid further
south which will keep more of a southwesterly low-level flow
going. This combined with warming low-level thicknesses will
support above to well above normal highs away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Mid/upper level ridging remains overhead tonight, with a
continued southwesterly flow helping support mild, above normal,
overnight temperatures. One potential fly in the ointment for
tonight is the potential development of fog/stratus. The
orientation of the high offshore will support a moistening
southwesterly flow, with dewpoints forecast to rise into the low
60s through the night. Forecast soundings suggest the depth of
low-level moistening may be sufficiently deep to support some
low stratus, or fog, development. At minimum, it could be a
scenario where at least patchy fog is able to develop that has
more depth to it than the patchy ground fog of late.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along
the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on
Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to
approach from the west.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area
on Wednesday, and now looks to cross the area around peak
heating. Higher confidence of shower and thunderstorm
development is beginning to take shape and have increased PoPs
during the afternoon to around 50%. Still, any severe threat
looks to be minimal with little to no shear present. Thursday
looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance
(20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in
the western counties. Despite this moving through the area,
temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in
the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (25-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The next 6-12 hours are expected to be very similar to this
time 24 hrs ago. Conditions still do not appear conducive to
widespread, impactful FG, but MIFG and the accompanying drop in
VIS will be possible (40-60% chance). On Monday, it looks like
another seabreeze forecast, with winds increasing some as the
seabreeze passes. Late Monday night, continued low-level
moisture advection may support a risk of low stratus clouds
and/or BR/FG, but the best chance looks to hold off until after
the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern
carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week,
with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance
will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Relatively good boating conditions are expected through
tonight. However, there are a couple of caveats worth
mentioning. The diurnal increase in southwesterly winds
associated with the developing thermal gradient may support a
few gusts to 25kt for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.
The duration and magnitude forecast appears too marginal for any
marine headlines, and I`ll continue to hold off on this for
now. For the coastal waters, seas are forecast to hold in the
2-4 ft range through this evening. By tonight, long period swell
arriving from the Northern Atlantic may lead to seas building
to 3-5 ft, especially north of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/RM
MARINE...RTE/RM