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000
FXUS63 KMPX 180017
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
717 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain across far southern Minnesota late tonight into early
  tomorrow morning with the next chance of more widespread rain
  arriving early next week.

- Cooler overnight temperatures may lead to frost/freeze concerns
  through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The back edge of the cloud shield associated with the surface low
that brought us our 1-2" of rain yesterday is starting work into
western Minnesota early this afternoon. Showers have largely come to
an end with a few areas of drizzle still ongoing across western
Wisconsin. This cloud cover combined with strong cold air advection
on the backside of this system has kept temperatures in the 40s and
low 50s area wide today, with breezy northwest winds making it feel
even cooler. Even as this surface low continues to move across the
Great Lakes, these near/slightly below normal temperatures are
expected to continue with a weak cold front moving through early
tomorrow. This front will also be the focus for some showers late
tonight into early Thursday, mainly across the southern third of
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Up to a quarter inch of additional rainfall
is possible before we dry out through the weekend. Temperatures will
be slower to warm with strong CAA and a slow moving upper low
overhead through at least early Saturday. After our recent bout of
temperatures in the 70s and 80s, those who did any early planting
may need to take precautions as overnight lows are expected to fall
near or just below freezing tomorrow night through Sunday morning.

By Sunday, temperatures look to return to the upper 50s and low 60s
with this slight warming trend continuing through the end of the
period. After a period of dry weather, rain chances increase Monday
and Tuesday. Currently, QPF amounts are on the lower end with only a
few tenths to a quarter inch expected. Once this system moves
out, ridging will build in and we will see temperatures back in
the mid to upper 60s through much of next week with more
potential rain chances on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Batch of rain currently over northwest Neb and moving into south
central SD will make a run for southern MN tonight. However, it
will be running into dry air, so it`s a bit uncertain just how
far north the rain will make it. The only airport that for sure
looks to see a little rain is MKT, with RWF/MSP/EAU all looking
to be near the northern fringe of the precip shield. Skies are
expected to remain VFR, though MKT could see some brief period
of high end MVFR cigs during the rain. We`ll see clouds clear
out Thursday morning, but skies will quickly fill back in as
another robust strato-cu field develops as we see another
afternoon of deep mixing with continued cold advection. The HRRR
even shows some showers being possible, though the mixed layer
looks dry enough and clouds shallow enough to keep precip from
occurring, but it will be something to continue to readdress
through the night.

KMSP...Winds on Thursday will be approaching cross-wind
territory with a 260 wind direction, with gusts into the low 30s
possible. There`s also some shower potential Thursday
afternoon, but it wouldn`t be more than a brief wetting of the
runways.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15-25G30-40 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG