780
FNUS73 KMPX 011127
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Uncas Dunes SNA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Uncas Dunes Burn, partly to mostly cloudy
skies are expected today with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds
will start out on the breezy side from the west before diminishing
by mid afternoon and becoming northwesterly. RH values will fall
to around 35-40%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /51800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /99300 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 26 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  53  55  57  59  61  62  64  63  63  62  60
RH..............80  71  64  59  53  49  46  43  43  44  48  53
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  15  16  14  13  12  10  8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  25  24  23  20  18  15  12  9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.3 3.2 1.2 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.24  25  25  26  26  25  23  21  16  13  9   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 5 mph late in the evening,
                    then becoming light late in the evening
                    becoming east 5 to 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 13 mph shifting to the south
                    around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
                    to the southeast 5 to 12 mph in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Temperature.........Max 53.
RH..................Min 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (43400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 20 mph increasing to 18 to 25 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Dominic Ruis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412835.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic.ruis@state.mn.us