631
FNUS73 KMPX 041248
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Overby RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
With rain moving through this morning our RH values will remain
elevated through early afternoon before settling in the
45 to 55% range by late afternoon. Showers will end over the next
hour or so and skies should begin to clear out. Winds will start
out light and westerly before turning slightly more northwest
by 11am at 5-10mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........47 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................83 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /105100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  48  49  51  54  56  58  58  59  59  59  58
RH..............83  80  77  71  64  57  53  51  47  47  47  49
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   9   10  12  13  13  13  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.10  12  10  13  16  17  18  20  18  17  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.9 2.6 3.0 4.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 4.2 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.6   8   10  12  14  17  20  20  20  18  16  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (58600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 16 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 10 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph late in
                    the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (51800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 6 to 12
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Kyle Avesing
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413129.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle_avesing@fws.gov