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000
FXUS63 KMQT 212051
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
451 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday, especially in the
  west and central.
- Rain showers return Monday night.
- Warmer than normal on Monday, then becoming much colder and
  breezy on Tuesday with rain showers turning to snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough across the Great
Lakes region with a ridge in the northern and Canadian Rockies. This
ridge moves into the northern plains by 00z Mon. A dry and weakening
cold front moves through the area today. Rh`s get down to around 25
percent this afternoon. This is some concern with winds being gusty,
but with recent wet trends, this should keep fire weather concerns
down for now. Will mention in the hwomqt product and also send out
an email to our fire weather partners to let them know about the low
rh values this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns on Monday as well as the early week
system will be the main focus of the extended forecast. This will be
followed by a brief dry period that holds through the end of the
work week. With positive 500mb height anomalies setting up over the
eastern CONUS and negative anomalies next weekend into the following
week, a more active and wet patter is expected to shape up as
shortwaves ride northeast into the Great Lakes/Midwest. Ample
moisture flowing off the Gulf of Mexico during this period will
support systems developing in the lee side of the Rockey. As they
follow northeast trajectories into the Midwest/Great Lakes, they
bring repetitive chances for precip which should help alleviate fire
weather concerns at the end of this month and into the early part of
May. This southwest flow also sets up for temperatures to trend to
above normal late this week into the following. Both warmer and
wetter patterns are nicely captured by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks.

Starting on Monday, WAA from southwest flow sets the UP up for
temperatures to be well above normal in the 60s save for the east
which will stay cooler with flow off Lake Michigan. Biased corrected
guidance does a great job highlighting the downslope areas that
could experience better warming over the west with the southwest
gradient wind. The ~1kft low level inversion noted in model
soundings is removed by the afternoon, bringing deep mixing up to 3-
5kft back and elevating fire weather concerns. Min RHs bottom out in
the low 20s to low 30s; lowest in the west, especially where there
is downsloping. Lowest fire weather concerns are in the east where
there is moist flow off Lake Michigan. Southwest wind gusts are
expected to increase to around 20-25 mph by the afternoon. Mid and
high level clouds begin to increase from the west ahead of the next
shortwave in the afternoon which may limiting mixing later in the
day.

Monday night, a shortwave over Manitoba moves southeast, becoming
centered over Lake Superior by Tuesday morning. The shortwave then
continues southeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. WAA
and Isentropic ascent kick off showers over the west Monday evening.
The line of showers moves east across the UP Tuesday night with a
period of dry weather expected behind it; timing of the dry period
is still uncertain yet. The associated sfc low strengthens as it
moves over Lake Superior Monday night thanks to the approaching left
exit region of the jet. As the low makes its way east-southeast off
Lake Superior toward southern Ontario Tuesday morning, a strong cold
front is forced south over the UP. Due to the cold front, highs for
the day (aside from the south central UP) will be in the morning. A
non diurnal curve is expected with temps dropping north to south
throughout the day. Given the time of the year, this steep
temperature drop is not as concerning with the higher sun angle.
This cold front will force a line of showers moving south across the
UP, yield north wind gusts up to 20-30 mph, and transition rain
showers to snow or a rain/snow mix for much of the UP.
Accumulations, if any, look to remain below an inch and in the
northern half of the UP. This CAA also will bring temps Tuesday
night into the low to mid 20s; a few spots dipping into the teens
cant be ruled out.

Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing
back dry weather. High pressure shifts eastward through the Great
Lakes basin through Friday while mid level ridging over the rockies
moves east over the Great Lakes. This does bring some drier air and
lower RHs back to the UP, however the limiting factor for potential
fire weather concerns is that winds are expected to remain light,
mainly below 15 mph. The southwest flow is expected to bring temps
back to above normal late next week and into the weekend. There is
fairly good model agreement for a shortwave over the rockies
Thursday night to ride northeast, passing through the Upper Great
Lakes on Saturday. With PWATs highlighting another surge of good
moisture off the Gulf of Mexico, this system and additional
shortwaves into the following week look to bring periods of rain
showers Friday night into Saturday and then again early in the
following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions expected to hold steady through TAF period despite
weak cold front dropping through the area.  Winds will, however, be
a bit breezy out of the northwest into this evening with gusts up to
22 kts at times. In addition, look for a wind shift to the
west-southwest this evening at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Stability from high pressure over Lake Superior keeps winds less
than 20 kts across the lake through tonight. The exception to this
would be over the far east where some northwest gusts to 25 kts are
possible into this evening. Winds turn southerly tonight, then
southwest on Monday as stability over the lake keeps winds below 20
kts. The next thing to focus on is a low pressure system moving east-
southeast over Lake Superior Monday night with a cold front dropping
south Across the lake behind it on Tuesday. This frontal passage
accompanied by a strong pressure gradient on the back side of the
low will result in a brief period of low end northeast gales over
the north central portions of the lake Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon (~70-95% chance for wind gusts exceeding 34 kts).
Probabilities of gusts exceeding 40 kts are less than 25%.
Otherwise, widespread northeast winds of 20-30 kts are expected on
Tuesday as instability increases. Northeast becoming east winds
diminish behind the low from west to east, returning below 20 kts by
Wednesday morning as high pressure returns. Winds then are expected
to continue below 20 kts through Thursday as the high pressure
shifts east over the Great Lakes Basin.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     LSZ243-244-263-264-266.

  Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Jablonski