000
FXUS63 KMQT 190737
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light rain showers develops this evening and
through the first half of the night, mainly across the central and
eastern UP.
- Cooler temps Friday and Saturday with low (30%) chances for light
diurnal showers this afternoon/evening and perhaps a light lake
effect rain/snow mix for Friday/Saturday.
- Some localized fire wx concerns could resurface again Friday into
Saturday with more widespread concerns Sunday and Monday as a drier
airmass moves in with breezy W to NW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The surface low that has brought rounds of rain over the past couple
of days has moved north of Lake Superior with weak ridging in its
wake. Aloft, broad troughing centered over the Canadian Prairies
continues to send weak shortwaves out of the Plains. One of these is
currently moving through central WI, touching off another round of
light rain showers. Water vapor shows an impressive dry slot across
eastern MN/western Lake Superior/far western Upper Michigan, while
surface observations indicate a diffuse frontal boundary draped over
the area. That is all to say that additional PoPs associated with
the shortwave moving through WI should stay contained to the central
and eastern UP. Weak radar returns have been streaming into the
south-central UP for most of the afternoon, but nothing appears to
be reaching the ground with just lingering lower to midlevel cloud
cover. However, will not rule out some sprinkles and light rain
showers this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, temperatures
seem to be behaving, hovering in the upper 40s and lower 50s
across most of the area. Where we can see some breaks in the
clouds, temperatures may be able to peak a couple degrees higher
in the mid 50s.

Tonight, the weak cold front off to our west moves through the UP,
while the right entrance region of an upper jet core slides over the
area. This may expand the coverage of rain showers, though rain
totals stay light; model soundings over the eastern half of the UP
only briefly moisten up enough at lower levels for my liking, and
the grand ensemble has a 70-100% chance for rain totals below a
quarter inch and around a 50% chance for totals less than a tenth of
an inch where we do pick up rain showers overnight. With a cooler
airmass moving in, expect temperatures to fall back more than last
night with lows ranging generally in the lower to mid 30s. Our
typically cooler spots throughout the western UP, where we`ll also
stand the best chance for skies to clear out, may drop into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low just to the west
of James Bay in Ontario with the trough axis across the area 00z
Sat. The upper trough remains over the area through 12z Mon. Minor
shortwaves moving through the trough will kick off some rain and
snow showers tonight into Sat before drying out Sat night into SUn
night.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
Tennessee River Valley, a closed low in southern Saskatchewan and a
deep trough across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The closed low in
southern Saskatchewan heads southeast into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Tue and opens into a trough. This trough then moves into the lower
Great Lakes 12z Wed while a broad ridge moves into the Rockies. The
ridge moves into the plains 12z Thu and into the upper Great Lakes
12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal Mon to below normal for
Tue and Wed to above normal Thu and Fri. Rain and snow moves in
Mon night into Tue and then dries back out for Wed into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the TAF sites for the
most part. However, there`s about a 60% chance that we could see
some high-end MVFR cigs over KCMX by the mid-morning hours today as
some light snow showers move into the Keweenaw. While the light snow
showers are also expected to develop across the rest of the U.P.
today, chances are higher (around 60% at this time) that low-end VFR
cigs will remain across KIWD and KSAW. Expect breezy westerly winds
today as a shortwave over northern Ontario continues cold air
advection across the area. In addition, while there is a 30 to 40%
chance of marginal LLWS begin realized over the TAF sites from time
to time before dawn this morning and again this evening (the highest
chance over KCMX), with the cold air advection helping to induce
mixing in the boundary layer, the higher wind speeds are more likely
to make it to the surface, even during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WSW winds increase to gales to 35 knots this morning as cold air
advection reduces over lake stability. The strongest winds are
expected along the northern shore of the Keweenaw due to funneling.
Winds veer NW and weaken to 20-30 kts tonight into Saturday and stay
20 to 30 knots into Sunday from the west before veering north. As
ridging builds in Sunday night, winds die down to 20 knots or less
and remain that way into Monday night. Winds become northeast and
increase up to 30 knots on Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ240.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     LSZ241.

  Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LSZ242>244.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ242>244-263-264.

  Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245-
     246.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ245-246-265>267.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ247-248.

  Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ249.

  Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for LSZ250-251.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07