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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions: 1
2
000 FGUS73 KMPX 241552 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1052 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 ...DUE TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT THE END OF MAY...A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST... IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 8 11 <5 6 <5 <5 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 34 27 <5 13 <5 <5 GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 14 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 44 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 52 27 6 <5 <5 <5 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 11 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 14 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 ANOKA 838.0 840.0 841.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 14 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 14 8 6 <5 <5 <5 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 24 14 6 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 2.1 2.1 2.9 3.4 4.7 5.5 6.9 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 3.6 4.2 5.4 6.6 8.2 10.5 13.6 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 7.6 7.6 7.9 10.7 14.9 15.5 16.5 GRANITE FALLS 884.5 884.5 884.5 885.4 886.9 888.1 888.9 MANKATO 6.3 7.0 9.7 13.4 16.7 18.7 20.4 HENDERSON 719.8 720.3 723.3 726.6 729.2 730.9 732.0 JORDAN 11.0 11.1 15.6 20.9 24.1 25.6 26.5 SAVAGE 698.4 698.4 698.6 701.2 704.4 706.6 707.4 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 5.4 5.4 5.4 6.1 6.6 7.7 8.4 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.3 6.0 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.4 9.1 11.4 16.2 DELANO 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.9 13.8 15.9 19.3 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 6.6 9.7 12.1 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.5 9.2 10.0 ANOKA 834.6 834.6 834.6 834.7 835.4 836.8 838.1 MINNEAPOLIS 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.9 12.8 14.7 ST PAUL 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.8 11.0 12.7 15.0 HASTINGS L/D#2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.7 13.9 15.3 16.9 RED WING L/D#3 676.1 676.1 676.1 676.2 678.0 679.5 681.1 RED WING 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.1 11.7 13.2 14.7 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 81.6 81.6 81.6 81.7 83.4 84.8 86.5 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.8 8.7 12.3 15.1 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 765.7 765.7 765.7 766.3 769.5 772.4 774.9 DURAND 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 12.9 14.9 16.2 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :REDWOOD RIVER REDWOOD FALLS 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 :COTTONWOOD RIVER NEW ULM 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 :MINNESOTA RIVER MONTEVIDEO 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.2 GRANITE FALLS 883.4 883.2 882.8 882.0 881.9 881.6 881.6 MANKATO 4.8 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 HENDERSON 718.0 716.9 715.3 713.0 711.8 711.8 711.8 JORDAN 8.6 7.8 6.5 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.6 SAVAGE 689.1 688.6 687.9 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 :LONG PRAIRIE RIVER LONG PRAIRIE 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 :SAUK RIVER ST CLOUD 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 :SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER MAYER 3.3 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 DELANO 7.8 7.1 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 :CROW RIVER ROCKFORD 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 :MISSISSIPPI RIVER ST CLOUD 5.7 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 ANOKA 832.1 831.7 831.5 831.3 831.2 831.1 831.1 MINNEAPOLIS 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 ST PAUL 4.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 HASTINGS L/D#2 6.6 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 RED WING L/D#3 670.8 669.8 669.0 667.6 667.0 667.0 667.0 RED WING 4.9 4.1 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 :ST CROIX RIVER STILLWATER 77.1 76.5 76.1 75.5 75.2 75.1 75.0 :EAU CLAIRE RIVER FALL CREEK 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 :CHIPPEWA RIVER EAU CLAIRE 758.9 758.9 758.7 758.6 758.5 758.4 758.3 DURAND 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED SO FAR FOR MAY. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED BETWEEN 2.0 INCHES IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO 5 TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WIDESPREAD 5 TO 6 INCHES PREVAILED. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE IS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WET ARE RUNNING AT 150 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MAY WERE IN THE 50S. THIS IS 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACCORDING TO THE USGS AND MN DNR FLOWS AS OF LATE MAY WERE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...THE CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WISCONSIN AT EAU CLAIRE IS CURRENTLY ABOVE ACTION STAGE WHILE DURAND IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE LONG PRAIRIE RIVER AT LONG PRAIRIE...MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST CLOUD....SOUTH FORK OF THE CROW RIVER AT DELANO AND THE ST CROIX RIVER AT STILLWATER ARE ALL ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES. THESE HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE FLOWS ARE IMPACTING THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS. HENCE THAT IS IN PART WHY THE PROBABILITIES FOR THESE FORECAST POINTS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD OF JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST. IT WOULD NOT TAKE AS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE RIVERS TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS LOCATIONS REFERENCE FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT MN DNR LOCATIONS REFERENCE WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML OR CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP EVEN THOUGH FROM A HYDROLOGIC PERSPECTIVE... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RECOVERED...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CREATED ON MAY 21 STILL SHOWS SOME AREAS IN DROUGHT. THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINS ARE HELPING TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION HOWEVER AND DROUGHT NO LONGER EXISTS IN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO NO LONGER EXIST. FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LESS...SEVERE DROUGHT OR D2 CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS. ELSEWHERE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT OR D1 CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR REFERENCE WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT THE ONGOING DROUGHT...REFERENCE THE LATEST STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT HTTP://FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/PRODUCT.PHP?SITE=MPX&ISSUEDBY= MPX&PRODUCT=DGT THE MINNESOTA CLIMATE WORKING GROUP ALSO HAS A DROUGHT WEBSITE HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DROUGHT THE SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK SHOWS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN JUNE LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. FOR JUNE AS A WHOLE...THE OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED ON MAY 16 FOR JUNE THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST INDICATES IMPROVING CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV TABLE 3 LISTED ABOVE PROVIDES A PERSPECTIVE OF THE RISK OF LOW FLOW. THE RISK OF A LOCATION FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS PROVIDES INSIGHT OF HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD DROP THROUGH THE END OF MAY. PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW OR NON EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NWS AHPS WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX. LOOK UNDER THE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SECTION...LOOK FOR THE RED HIGHLIGHTED LINK OF /HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD GO/ FOR THE LOW FLOW AND STAGE GRAPHICS. THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE) THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JUNE $$ DFC
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