Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FGUS73 KMPX 281937
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PROBABILITY OF REACHING A
FLOOD CATEGORY.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  10   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  12   35    7   16   <5    7
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  15   41    6   24   <5    6
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :   7   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   13   <5    7   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :   9   20   <5    7   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  15   27   <5   15   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  52   63   <5   13   <5    9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  12   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :   6   18   <5    7   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  18   26   <5    9   <5    9
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :   7   18   <5    9   <5    9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  12   23   <5   13   <5    9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  30   21   13   10    6   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :   6    7    6    7   <5    7
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  20   24   15   21    6   13
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  30   36   13   21    6   13
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  20   20    9   15   <5    6
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  20   15    9   13   <5    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  63   24   36   15   20    9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  41   26   20   12   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  40   21   16    9    7   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  72   46   26   12    7   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.5    2.5    2.8    3.9    4.7    6.4   10.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               4.7    5.1    6.1    7.6    9.7   12.2   14.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            5.6    6.0    8.2   10.5   11.9   14.7   16.2
GRANITE FALLS       883.8  883.9  884.7  885.5  885.9  887.5  889.2
MANKATO               6.9    8.0   10.0   12.2   15.8   19.9   21.2
HENDERSON           720.3  721.4  723.4  725.9  728.6  732.1  733.4
JORDAN               12.1   13.3   16.0   19.6   23.4   26.8   28.2
SAVAGE              694.1  695.1  698.6  702.7  706.5  708.5  712.1
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          3.9    4.1    5.0    5.9    6.4    7.2    7.5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              2.5    2.7    3.3    4.0    4.9    5.7    6.3
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 5.5    5.8    6.6    8.4   10.3   12.3   15.6
DELANO               10.2   10.6   11.5   13.3   15.1   16.3   19.4
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.3    4.3    5.0    6.7    8.4   10.2   14.3
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              7.0    7.2    7.7    8.4    9.5   10.6   11.5
MINNEAPOLIS           8.6    9.0   10.0   11.4   13.4   15.2   16.9
ST PAUL               6.1    6.5    7.9   10.3   12.8   15.5   18.2
HASTINGS L/D#2        8.6    9.1   10.6   13.2   15.4   17.2   18.9
RED WING L/D#3      675.3  675.6  676.7  678.3  679.8  681.7  682.3
RED WING              8.7    8.8   10.0   11.2   13.2   14.9   15.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           84.5   84.6   86.1   87.5   88.8   90.6   91.0
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            8.4    8.7    9.2   10.6   13.5   16.7   17.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          768.6  769.4  770.6  772.1  774.4  777.2  778.6
DURAND               11.5   12.0   12.9   14.1   15.7   16.8   17.4

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.2    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.4    1.3
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               3.7    3.4    3.0    2.6    2.2    2.0    1.9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            5.1    4.4    3.6    3.0    2.4    2.1    1.8
GRANITE FALLS       883.5  883.1  882.5  881.9  881.7  881.4  881.3
MANKATO               5.5    5.3    3.9    3.0    2.3    1.7    1.6
HENDERSON           718.5  718.1  715.4  714.4  713.0  711.9  711.6
JORDAN               10.2    9.6    7.1    6.1    4.9    4.3    4.0
SAVAGE              688.8  688.7  688.5  688.0  687.5  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.4    1.3
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.2    0.9
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.1    3.0    2.8    2.3    1.5    1.0    0.8
DELANO                7.1    7.1    6.8    6.4    5.7    5.3    5.1
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.4    2.0    1.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0
MINNEAPOLIS           4.5    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
ST PAUL               3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2        5.3    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.7    4.5    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      668.7  668.6  668.4  668.0  667.7  667.0  667.0
RED WING              3.6    3.6    3.4    3.1    2.6    2.1    1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           76.0   75.9   75.8   75.7   75.6   75.4   75.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            1.3    1.2    1.0    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          759.0  758.9  758.9  758.9  758.8  758.7  758.6
DURAND                3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.6    2.4    2.4


THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...THE
FIFTH CONSECUTIVE BELOW NORMAL MONTH IN MINNESOTA...HAVE DELAYED THE
MAXIMUM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.  THIS
DELAY MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING LATER IN THE SPRING...AS
WE MOVE TOWARD A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WARM RAIN WHILE STILL SEEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BASINS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.  TO THE WEST...MOST AREAS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE CHANCE OF FLOODING.  MOST OF THE SNOWPACK HAS
ALREADY MELTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF MINNESOTA.

THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK RANGES FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN...FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND THE TWIN
CITIES...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FURTHER WEST.  FROST DEPTHS ARE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 25 INCHES OVER THE REGION...DEEPEST WHERE
THE SNOWPACK IS LESS (AND MUCH DEEPER UNDER PAVEMENT AND BARE
GROUND).

MUCH OF THE ACTUAL FLOOD THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TYPE OF
WARM UP AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE RECEIVED IN THE SPRING.  LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS SHOW A DECENT PROBABILITY OF CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH APRIL...WITH EQUAL CHANCES
OF ABOVE...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  PEOPLE WITH
STRONG INTERESTS IN RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BE WARY OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...EITHER HEAVY SNOW THAT COULD ADD TO THE
SNOWPACK...OR HEAVY RAIN THAT WOULD ENHANCE RUNOFF IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NWS AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (ALL LOWER CASE)
AND MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AT
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX (ALL LOWER CASE)

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 60 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...PLUS CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND SHORT RANGE FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION.  THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS).

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE APRIL. SHOULD FORECASTS IN
THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD BEGIN TO INDICATE A FLOOD THREAT...THE NWS
WILL COMMUNICATE THE INFORMATION VIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS
(HWO)...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND OUR WEBSITES/SOCIAL MEDIA
OUTLETS.

$$







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