Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
545
FGUS73 KMPX 021729
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CST THU MAR 2 2017

...Spring Flood Probabilities For Much of Central and Southern
Minnesota...and Western Wisconsin...

In table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID  PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  32   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  47   33   20   18    7   10
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  59   45   26   26   10   17
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :   7   12   <5    8   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  16   20   <5    8   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  35   28   11   17   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  70   60   11   14   <5    9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  19   24   <5    7   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  12   19   <5   10   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  23   27   <5   12   <5    9
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :  14   17   <5   14   <5   12
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  14   19    6   13   <5    9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  28   30   13   15    5    6
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :   6   10    5    9   <5    8
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  25   23   19   19    9   12
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  43   39   20   20   10   16
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  18   19    9   17   <5    9
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  16   18    9   15    6    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  14   19    9   14    6   11
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  15   28   10   16   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :   7   15   <5    8   <5    5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  28   44    8   14   <5    7


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.9    3.0    4.0    5.2    6.3    8.5    9.2
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               6.6    7.1    9.4   10.7   12.8   14.3   16.6
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO           10.9   11.0   12.4   14.9   16.1   17.4   18.1
GRANITE FALLS       883.5  883.5  884.0  885.2  886.1  887.5  888.3
MANKATO              10.7   11.5   12.8   15.6   18.8   21.5   23.4
HENDERSON           724.1  724.7  726.1  728.3  731.1  733.5  735.0
JORDAN               16.8   17.6   20.0   23.2   25.9   28.1   29.5
SAVAGE              699.4  699.5  701.3  704.7  708.2  710.3  711.2
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.5    4.9    5.7    6.1    6.8    7.5    7.8
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.5    4.5    4.5    4.8    5.4    6.1    6.7
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 5.6    5.8    7.1    8.9   10.9   12.8   13.7
DELANO               10.6   10.7   11.9   13.7   15.2   16.7   17.2
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              5.5    5.5    5.9    7.4    8.7   10.9   12.3
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              7.4    7.5    8.0    8.4    9.2   10.4   11.0
MINNEAPOLIS           9.1    9.1    9.9   11.2   12.8   14.8   16.7
ST PAUL               7.8    7.8    8.8   10.7   14.1   16.2   18.5
HASTINGS L/D#2       11.1   11.1   11.9   14.0   16.7   18.1   19.6
RED WING L/D#3      675.4  675.4  676.0  677.2  679.7  681.4  682.7
RED WING              8.8    8.8    9.0   10.4   13.0   14.6   16.3
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           81.5   81.5   82.6   83.7   85.6   87.8   89.3
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            5.6    6.1    7.0    7.8    9.0   13.7   15.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          764.0  764.6  765.3  766.7  769.0  772.6  774.2
DURAND                9.2    9.3   10.1   11.6   13.2   15.5   16.2

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.5    2.3    2.1    2.0    1.7    1.6    1.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               4.5    4.4    3.7    3.1    2.6    2.4    2.3
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            7.0    6.0    4.8    3.6    2.8    2.6    2.6
GRANITE FALLS       882.4  882.1  881.7  881.0  880.5  880.3  880.3
MANKATO               8.2    7.0    5.9    5.0    4.0    3.4    3.3
HENDERSON           721.2  719.7  718.6  716.9  715.3  714.4  714.2
JORDAN               13.0   11.3   10.2    8.4    6.8    6.1    5.8
SAVAGE              694.3  693.1  690.5  688.9  688.0  687.6  687.5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          3.6    3.4    3.1    2.8    2.4    2.2    2.0
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              3.5    3.4    3.0    2.5    2.1    2.0    1.8
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 4.3    4.1    3.7    3.2    2.5    2.0    1.7
DELANO                8.9    8.7    8.2    7.6    6.8    6.1    5.8
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.3    4.1    3.9    3.5    3.0    2.7    2.6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              6.1    6.0    5.8    5.5    5.2    4.9    4.7
MINNEAPOLIS           7.3    6.8    6.5    5.9    5.5    5.1    4.8
ST PAUL               5.5    5.3    4.6    3.9    3.5    3.4    3.3
HASTINGS L/D#2        8.1    7.8    7.0    6.0    5.3    4.9    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      672.9  672.4  671.8  670.7  669.4  668.3  667.4
RED WING              6.8    6.6    5.8    4.8    3.7    2.8    2.4
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           77.9   77.5   76.9   76.0   75.6   75.4   75.3
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            2.2    2.1    1.7    1.3    1.1    0.9    0.9
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          760.1  760.0  759.6  759.3  758.9  758.8  758.8
DURAND                4.6    4.5    3.8    3.4    2.8    2.4    2.4

Spring flood factors will be based on past precipitation...soil
moisture...snowpack...snow water runoff...frost depth...and forecast
snow and rainfall amounts in the next couple of months.

Our mild winter and dry February has resulted in a nearly
nonexistent snow pack for central Minnesota...and only a few inches
remaining in western Wisconsin.  Frost depth is near to below normal
(shallower) which has little effect one way or another for Spring
flooding.

Soil moisture remains very high...due to above normal precipitation
last fall and early winter. Months of saturated soils have led to
most of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing historically high streamflow
for this time of year.

Therefore...the main flood threat will be determined by the
occurrences (or lack of) heavy snow events in March and/or heavy
rain events in March and April.

The next two weeks calls for near to above normal precipitation and
above normal temperatures. The monthly outlook for March and the
seasonal spring outlook continue this trend...so we will be watching
for heavy rainfall events to potentially trigger flooding. Because
of the lack of snow pack...the chances of "high end" flooding have
decreased since the previous outlook was released in February.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE waterdata.usgs.gov

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONIDITIONS AT
MN DNR LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

weather.gov/twincities or
water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?rfc=ncrfc


THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MARCH

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.