Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FGUS73 KMPX 211655
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-282359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  18   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  18   33   12   13   <5    9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  16   35    6   18   <5    7
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :   6   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   10   <5    7   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :   9   16   <5    7   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  20   24    7   13   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  52   60   10   12   <5    7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         6.0    8.0   10.0 :  40   35   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :   7   18   <5    7   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  16   26   <5    7   <5    7
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :   6   15   <5    9   <5    7
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :   9   20   <5   12   <5    7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  26   18   10   12    6   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :   6   10    6    7    6    7
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  21   26   15   21   10   12
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  30   33   15   20   12   12
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :  16   20   12   15    7    6
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :  16   15   12   13   10    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  12   15   10    9   <5    6
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  47   26   29   10   16   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  46   21   21    9    9   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  70   47   36   13    9   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.8    3.0    3.3    3.9    4.8    8.6   10.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               6.2    6.5    7.0    7.8    9.6   14.2   15.4
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            7.2    8.8   10.3   12.2   13.5   15.2   17.7
GRANITE FALLS       884.4  884.9  885.4  886.0  886.5  887.8  891.1
MANKATO               8.2    9.1   10.3   12.6   16.6   20.1   23.1
HENDERSON           721.5  722.3  724.0  726.2  729.7  732.2  735.1
JORDAN               13.3   14.8   16.6   20.8   24.5   27.1   29.9
SAVAGE              694.3  696.7  699.5  702.2  706.7  710.5  713.5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.0    4.2    5.1    5.8    6.4    7.4    7.8
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              2.4    2.6    3.4    4.0    4.7    5.8    6.2
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 4.9    5.7    6.5    8.1   10.0   11.6   13.3
DELANO                9.5   10.2   11.4   12.7   14.9   16.3   17.2
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.9    4.3    4.8    6.3    8.1   10.0   13.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              7.0    7.2    7.5    8.2    9.0   10.1   11.4
MINNEAPOLIS           8.7    9.1    9.8   10.6   13.1   15.0   18.3
ST PAUL               6.2    7.5    8.3    9.9   13.5   17.7   20.7
HASTINGS L/D#2        8.8   10.2   11.1   12.8   15.9   18.6   20.7
RED WING L/D#3      675.2  675.5  676.2  676.9  679.1  682.9  683.7
RED WING              8.5    8.7    9.3   10.3   12.4   16.8   17.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           81.7   81.9   82.5   83.3   85.2   88.3   89.1
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            7.3    7.8    8.5   10.8   14.8   18.4   19.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          768.7  769.1  770.1  772.5  775.4  778.2  781.6
DURAND               11.6   12.0   12.7   14.7   15.9   17.4   19.1

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.3    2.3
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.5    2.3    2.3
GRANITE FALLS       881.9  881.9  881.9  881.9  881.7  881.6  881.5
MANKATO               2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.5
HENDERSON           712.5  712.4  712.3  712.2  712.2  711.9  711.0
JORDAN                4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    3.8
SAVAGE              687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.4  687.3
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
DELANO                5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8
MINNEAPOLIS           3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.1
ST PAUL               3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2        4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
RED WING L/D#3      667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0  667.0
RED WING              1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           74.6   74.6   74.6   74.6   74.6   74.5   74.5
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7  758.7
DURAND                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1

FEBRUARY SNOWS HAVE ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...SLIGHTLY RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRING
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAU
CLAIRE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS IN WISCONSIN...THE FLOOD PROBABLILITIES
FOR MOST RIVERS REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LESS THAN A FOOT IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MN...TO AROUND 2 FEET IN THE TWIN CITIES...TO OVER 3 FEET IN WESTERN
WI.  THE WATER EQUIVALENT IN THAT SNOWPACK RANGES FROM LESS
THAN 2 INCHES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...TO AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  FROST DEPTHS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15
AND 30 INCHES OVER THE REGION...DEEPEST WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS LESS.

MUCH OF THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TYPE OF WARM UP
AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED IN THE SPRING.  LONG RANGE
OUTLOOKS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH APRIL...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR A GRAPHICAL LOOK THE RISK OF MINOR...MODERATE MAJOR FLOODING
PLEASE SEE:  WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/?N=SPROUTLOOKCURRENT

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE)

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY MARCH

$$






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