533
FXUS63 KPAH 302307
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
607 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue into the first half of Friday. Chances
  of rain begin to increase for portions of southeast Missouri
  by Friday afternoon/night.

- A more unsettled pattern returns this weekend into next week
  with daily rain chances along with a warmer and more humid
  airmass.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper level heights are increasing across the region this
afternoon with high pressure at the surface anchored across the
Great Lakes. Easterly surface flow will remain in place through
early Friday continuing to keep a drier airmass in place.
Further west, an upper level disturbance is progged to slowly
move east and slowly amplify over the weekend. Guidance favors
some PoPs lifting into far SW zones as early as Friday
afternoon. Better height falls, and PVA will favor increasing
showers and storms on Saturday. A surface low will lift
northeast across portions of eastern Missouri and the Ohio
valley increasing low level convergence and advecting richer
theta-e air poleward. Albeit weak lapse rates, increasing
instability will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
There may be enough instability and deep layer shear (~30-40
knots) for a strong storm or two. Coverage is expected to remain
isolated with strong wind gusts and small hail the main
hazards. Additionally, heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is
also possible given antecedent conditions. As the previous
discussion mentioned, a marginal to slight risk was introduced
into the ERO for Saturday.

Next week still looks unsettled with rain chances continuing.
Several upper waves are expected to traverse the area next week
offering chances for showers and storms. Warmer temperatures
will also return by next week. Highs will reach back into the
mid to upper 80`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Mid-level cu will diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating as VFR conditions prevail. Winds will turn light &
variable with high cirrus clouds spreading across the region
overnight. Most of the day Friday will remain dry as a
disturbance begins to approach the region, but did include VCSH
at KCGI after 22z. Given a dry boundary layer, think we will be
slower to saturate than what some of the model guidance is
suggesting and will have better mixing as a result. Easterly
winds between 10-12 kts with gusts 17-18 kts are progged.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DW