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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 182002
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 AM CHST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN AT 17 OR
18N...UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR MAY. RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF GUAM...BUT THESE WILL NOT BR AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO FAR SOUTH...PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL SUPPRESS SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA.
HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER KOSRAE LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED
SOUTH OF 7N THROUGH TONIGHT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO AND
POHNPEI ARE NOT EXPECTED. A SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ITCZ
WILL BRING WET UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK OVER MAJURO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHILE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO STAY
SOUTH OF POHNPEI THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REMAINS ON THE EASTERN END OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST DURING THE DAY
AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO RESUME AT CHUUK THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT E-SE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT KOROR AND YAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT YAP AND KOROR ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BUT TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWER EVENTS REMAINS DIFFICULT
DUE TO WEAK FLOW IN THE REGION AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURES...SO KEPT ISOLATED FOR NOW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS