000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250621
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
421 PM CHST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GENTLE TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAILED
OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THE
NEXT TEN DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST. THE GFS40 AND MOS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FEEL THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE IN AREA TO KEEP ISOLATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COVERS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH. WHILE THIS USUALLY WOULD BE THE RECIPE FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION DEEP LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LACKING SO
ONLY ISOLATED IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURF
ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST. COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
DECREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE CLOSING IN ON MAJURO THIS EVENING...BUT
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL SEE DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
FORECAST SHOWS IMPROVED CONDITIONS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...BUT
SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE MARSHALLS THIS EVENING WILL REACH THE
TWO LOCALES BY TOMORROW MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF THE DATE LINE...BUT MODELS DOWNPLAY THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHOWERS SHIFT WEST. BY
MIDWEEK...MODELS DO SHOW A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE A WETTER TREND FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WEATHER TO BE CONFINED IN TWO
LOCATIONS...ONE WEST OF KOROR...AND ANOTHER JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK HAVE TAPERED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN KOROR AND
YAP HAVE MAINTAINED CONVECTION THERE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR YAP TONIGHT DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WEATHER
THERE. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF YAP THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A DRY NIGHT AS WELL AT KOROR...SO FORECAST SHOWS
IMPROVED CONDITIONS THERE OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. MODELS DEPICT A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN ENCOMPASSING THE
LOCALES BY MONDAY WITH MOIST CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONVERGING WITH THE TRADES BETWEEN 4N AND 7N. FOR NOW...FORECAST
WILL KEEP WITH INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE LONG-TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT