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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130538
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue tomorrow across the
  the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions will be possible during the
  afternoon on Sunday for the San Luis Valley and portions of
  the plains, mainly Pueblo County.

- Snow will begin over the mountains on Monday, some precip will
  then move out into the adjacent plains MOnday night into
  Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue to be possible
  over portions of the plains and San Luis Valley through the
  mid part of next week.

- Chances of mountain snow and lower elevation rain expected
  again on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly north of Highway 50.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Winds have decreased and humidity values have gradually
increased above critical thresholds across southern sections of
the area. Therefore the Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire
at 800 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Right around sunset tonight the relative humidity values will
increase to end the Red Flag Warning that we have in place for the
San Luis Valley, Las Animas County, and Baca Counties. There is a
weak jet streak aloft that is allowing for gusty winds to continue
during the evening and overnight hours, especially over the far
eastern plains. The pattern becomes more zonal aloft during the
afternoon tomorrow and a west to east oriented jet streak will be
located overhead. This led to us issuing another Red Flag Warning
for Saturday. The areas covered under the Red Flag Warning are all
of the eastern plains with the exception of Fremont County and El
Paso County from 10am - 7PM and the San Luis Valley from 2PM - 7PM.
Wind gusts will be right around 25 to 30 mph throughout the day and
relative humidity values well below 15%.

Outside of isolated to scattered snow showers over the Continental
Divide, the region is expected to remain free from precipitation. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to 50s over the plains, the
50s will be located where the most persistent gusty winds are
located, and the 30s over the mountains valleys. High temperatures
tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to 80s over the plains and the 60s
to 70s over the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday night through Sunday...

A major shortwave trough upstream will continue to propagate towards
the region with increasing surface winds out of the southwest ahead
of it. These winds will be rather marginal, and even though very
warm temperatures underneath a strong ridge and dry air in place
resulting in single digit relative humidity (RH) values, critical
fire weather conditions will only be spotty for the most part over
the plains on the afternoon for Sunday. That being said, it will be
more widespread over the San Luis Valley and Pueblo County, and for
this reason I issued a Fire Weather Watch for these locations from 1
PM until 8 PM LST on Sunday. The downsloping and compressing winds
will also allow the lower elevations to become very warm, with highs
getting up near the 90F degree mark within the lower Arkansas River
Valley, and generally in the mid 80s across the rest of the plains.

Monday through Tuesday...

On Monday, the trough will begin to move over, with increasing
clouds and snow moving in across the higher terrain. The plains will
remain mostly dry, although there could be a few showers (mostly in
the form of rain below 6000 ft and perhaps a mix above that
elevation) moving out into the adjacent plains, along portions of
the I-25 corridor over El Paso County. Winds will become much
stronger in Monday during the afternoon and conditions look to be
much more favorable for there to be widespread critical fire weather
conditions across the plains and San Luis Valley on Monday. An
associated bora front will move through the CWA Monday night and
winds will switch to being out of a more northwesterly direction,
which will advect in some colder temperatures and higher RH values
as well which will help to mitigate the threat of fire weather
conditions during the afternoon on Tuesday, which at this time look
to be only spotty at best. Chances of precip will also begin to wind
down as the low mores further to the east and high pressure builds
back in. Winds will also continue to decouple and weaken going into
the later part of the evening. Highs will be notably cooler, and
closer to the seasonal average on Tuesday as well.

Wednesday through Thursday...

By this time in the forecast period, there appears to be a little
more in the deviation between the deterministic models and details
will need to become more finely tuned in the days to come in terms
of a secondary wave, and then a tertiary wave moving in in its wake.
At this time, it is appearing that fire weather conditions will be
more confined to the southeastern plains during the afternoon
through early evening on Wednesday, but then it is spotty again by
next Thursday and mostly over the San Luis Valley with colder air
advected in over the plains behind the associated front that moves
through. This will also keep chances of mountain snow and lower
elevation rain along the adjacent plains going from Wednesday
through Thursday, mainly north of Highway 50.    -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24
hours. Westerly winds with gusts to around 25kt are expected to
develop after 17Z at all three stations this afternoon, with only
few to scattered mid level cloud cover to speak of. No precipitation
is expected at any of the terminals this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for COZ224-228.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for
COZ228>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...EHR