Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 250920
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
220 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Other than a slight chance of showers over the Sierra & western
Basin & Range this afternoon, the first half of the week will
feature dry conditions and gradual warming. Our next storm
arrives on Wednesday with periods of unsettled weather lasting
through Easter weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry and mild weather prevails through mid-week as a large-
scale trough continues trekking eastward out of our region, with a
transient ridge following on its heels. A weak shortwave dropping
down the western periphery of the large-scale will introduce modest
instability mainly over NE CA into the western Basin & Range. When
coupled with efficient daytime heating from mostly clear skies early
in the day, these conditions will aid in the development of isolated
convective showers over the aforementioned areas this afternoon into
the evening hours. These showers will mainly be in the form of snow
above 5000-5500 feet, with rain or perhaps some pellet showers for
lower elevations. Any accumulations (both rain or snow) will be
generally light.

Otherwise, expect a gradual warming trend through mid-week, with
temperatures maxing out close to seasonal averages on Wednesday.
Winds will remain generally light out of the northwest through
Tuesday, with typical afternoon breezes. Winds shift out of the
southwest by Wednesday morning ahead of our next storm, becoming
gusty during the afternoon. Expect valley gusts between 30-40 mph
and Sierra ridge gusts upwards of 80-100 mph on Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

A closed upper-level low approaches the PacNW on Wednesday, with an
associated strong upper-jet supplying modest sub-tropical moisture
into our region on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Due to the sub-
tropical component of this system, snow levels will be above 6000-
6500 feet for the strongest portion of the storm. This appears to be
a quite modest storm on Sierra standards. Heaviest snowfall will
favor the crest from Alpine County northward, with a 70-80% chance
of 6" of snowfall through Thursday evening, and only a 10-20% chance
for 12". The high Sierra in Mono County has a 70-80% chance for 2"
of snowfall through Thursday evening, with chances dropping to 30-
40% for 6". Spillover east of the Sierra crest will be limited, with
only a 15-30% chance for over 0.1" of liquid along the US-395
corridor.

Precip will taper in intensity Thursday evening as the upper-low
wobbles off the PacNW coast before dropping southward along the west
coast on Friday. This will reintroduce a strong jet over our region
by Friday afternoon and subsequently reinvigorating precipitation
chances areawide. This is looking like the bigger portion of the
storm due the residence time of this jet over the region,
potentially keeping precipitation ongoing into early next week,
especially for areas generally south of I-80. Details are bound to
change due to the highly dynamic nature of closed lows, but you can
generally count on additional rounds of mountain snow, valley rain,
and gusty winds through Easter weekend. Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail with winds out of the northwest today. Patchy
FZFG may create periods of IFR/LIFR conditions at KTRK through
around 15-16z this morning. Some isolated light snow/pellet showers
are possible for Sierra and western Basin & Range terminals this
afternoon, leading to brief reductions in CIGS/VIS and potential
terrain obscuration. These isolated showers taper off overnight,
leaving dry conditions in place areawide through Tuesday. Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


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