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000
FXUS65 KREV 160819
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
119 AM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A drier and warmer springlike pattern is underway with afternoon
temperatures on track to rise into the 60s for Sierra communities and
70s across lower valleys this week. There may even be a few 80s
for warmer valleys by the weekend. A slight cooling trend and a
chance for showers may return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Temperature ensemble spreads have narrowed through the weekend
  which brings more certainty to the forecast. A warmup is on
  track with temperatures likely to peak this weekend as a
  shortwave ridge shifts across CA/NV. Generally dry through the
  weekend although the GEFS continues to paint some light QPF
  along the Sierra late week. The ECS remains drier and the
  forecast will continue to follow a dry blended guidance where
  PoPs are less than 15%.

* A trough passing to our north will bump winds up a bit across
  the ridges tonight and early Wednesday when gusts could approach
  50 mph with some late day W-NW breezes down at the surface where
  gusts could approach 25 mph over northwest NV. A front will drop
  southward through the Great Basin which will turn our winds more
  north-northeast 10-15 mph Wednesday. Otherwise, it will have
  little impact on our weather. After warming into the 60s and 70s
  this afternoon, we will not see much change Wed-Thu. By late
  week into the weekend, temperatures will warm further, maybe
  pushing 80 degrees for warmest valleys (about 10-15 degrees
  above normal).

* Next week, ECS/GEFS meteograms continue to show QPF signatures
  as a potential trough approaches around mid week. There is still
  a lot of spread in the ensemble suite, but overall trends favor
  a cool down, increased breezes and chances for showers.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of freezing fog will persist in the Martis Valley /KTRK/
through 16Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the week with a general W-NW flow aloft. A weak system
will brush by to our north tonight with a slight uptick in winds
across ridges (FL100 winds 25-35 kts). W-NW winds 10-15 kts at the
surface this afternoon/evening will shift N-NE on Wednesday as a
cold front drops southward through the Great Basin.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$