777
FXUS61 KRLX 030625
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend, then an active pattern continues
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades
to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air,
transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front,
should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during
the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon,
with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as
moderate instability develops within the warm and moist
environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while
a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and
storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with
values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into
tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which
could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas;
however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the
fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight`s temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the
50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and
storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be
followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With
the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to
around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of
year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the
period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water
issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent
dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud
cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There
is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation
expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of
valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings
or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to
high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this
afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches
from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be
possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and
tonight.

Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds
increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the
day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the
TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 05/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight
into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB