224
FXUS61 KRLX 021554
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1154 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it
washes out over the area this weekend. Active next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

The few areas of fog then developed across portions of the area
this morning should dissipate in the next couple of hours this
morning. The near term forecast generally remains on track,
with no significant changes needed at this time.

As of 130 AM Thursday...

An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal
boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA -
is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains
and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air
should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today,
though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift
overhead.

Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly
approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger
through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected
to occur ahead of the front.

After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into
the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the
mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in
the 50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

Sustained periods of dry periods are elusive in both the short
and long term periods.

The short term does start dry, with mid-upper level ridging
exiting ahead of a southern stream short wave trough and surface
cold front approaching from the west. There are some model
differences in whether these features roll into the area Friday
midday through evening, or Friday afternoon and night. The
latter would allow more dry time and daytime heating Friday,
while the former brings clouds, showers and thunderstorms in
earlier. The forecast sticks with the later timing.

Even so, some increase in cloud during the morning and midday,
and modest dew points of around 60 or even lower, will likely
contribute to modest instability Friday afternoon, with CAPE
less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid level flow/shear,
thunderstorms are not expected to be especially strong, but they
can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in the middle Ohio
Valley by late in the day.

As the system lifts northeastward through the area, the surface
cold front washes out, stranding the area in southerly flow of
very warm and increasingly humid air amid additional short wave
ripples in the mid-upper level southwest flow. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely Friday night through Saturday, and even
into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere will not be that
unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5 inches or higher, so
heavy downpours are a good possibility. However, the growing
vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential
for high water.

By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving
way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage
Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least
across the middle Ohio Valley.

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as mid-upper level
ridging slowly works east of the area. While central guidance
highs Friday are 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal for early
May, they are still comfortably below record highs for the date.
After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday,
highs moderate a bit on Sunday given decreasing shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Nights remain unseasonably mild for this
time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

The few areas of fog that developed this morning will dissipate
in the next couple of hours, then VFR conditions are expected
across the area for the rest of the day. While VFR is expected
to persist overnight, cloud cover should begin to increase out
ahead of a slowly approaching front.

Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of
the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday,
and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB