Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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555 FXUS63 KSGF 141058 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog will remain possible early this morning. Visibilities could drop below one mile at times and will likely vary with time and over short distances. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the area from late this morning into early this evening. - Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday night and through much of the day Wednesday. - Additional Shower and thunderstorm chances will occur at times from late Wednesday evening into Friday. A few strong storms may be possible along with locally heavy rainfall and a minor localized flooding risk. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An upper level low and surface low are currently moving east through the area early this morning. A few isolated showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible early this morning but most locations will remain day through the early morning hours. Lows this morning will cool into the middle to upper 50s. Some patchy fog has developed across portions of the area and will remain possible through the early morning hours. Widespread dense fog is not expected as clouds are increasing from the northwest, but patchy fog with visibilities reduced to one mile or less will be possible at times but will overall be localized in nature. visibilities will likely vary with time and over short distances this morning. Any fog that develops should dissipated completely by the mid morning hours. As the upper level and surface lows move off to the east today weak uncapped instability and moisture will wrap around the low today. As this occurs isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across portions of the area from late this morning into early this evening. This activity will not be widespread in nature at any given time and the overall best chances for this activity will be east of Highway 65. No severe weather is expected today as instability and shear will remain on the weaker side. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s as clouds remain over the region. The rain will move off to the east by tonight with dry conditions expected overnight as lows cool into the lower to middle 50s. Some patchy fog may be possible again tonight into Wednesday morning. An upper level ridge will move east over the region on Wednesday. Highs will warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s as a warmer air mass advects into the area. Most of the day on Wednesday should remain dry as a cap will be in place as the ridge is over the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Wednesday evening and night the upper level ridge will move off to the east as an upper level trough moves east across the central and northern Plains. The cap will start to decrease late Wednesday evening and night and storms are expected to develop across portions of the area. Deep layer shear will increase with the approach of the trough and a few strong storms with hail will be possible Wednesday night but overall the better chances should remain west and northwest of the area Wednesday evening and night. The trough will continue to move east across the area on Thursday. Instability and deep layer shear will support a risk for a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds the main risk on Thursday. Another upper level trough will move through the region bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday night into Friday. Not expecting widespread flooding at this time but with the multiple rounds of rain there could be a risk for some localized minor flooding late this week. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s Wednesday through Friday. An upper level ridge and a warmer air mass will move over the area this weekend into early next week with highs in the 80s returning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Patchy fog has developed across portions of the area early this morning. Any fog that has developed visibilities will start to develop in the first few hours of the TAF period. IFR to MVFR ceilings will also improve across the area by this afternoon. Light flow and lower ceilings will be possible again tonight into Wednesday morning across portions of the area. An area of surface low pressure will continue to move off to the east today. Behind the low northwestern winds will occur this morning and afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this morning with scattered showers and maybe a few storms across portions of the area this afternoon into early this evening. The best coverage will be east of the TAF sites this afternoon/early evening. Confidence due to coverage at the TAF site in the convection was too low to included any mention in the TAFs at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise