429
FXUS64 KSJT 292323
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
623 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet forecast for this afternoon across West Central Texas, but
with a chance of storms returning as quickly as late Tuesday
afternoon. Surface dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by
sunrise Tuesday morning, and when combined with returning south
winds, will help keep overnight lows more mild. Lows tonight
likely staying in the low to mid 60s. More unstable on Tuesday
afternoon as dryline becomes better established. Not a lot of
upper level support but with a bit of convergence along the
dryline and with CAPE values climbing into the 2500-3500 range, a
few severe storms are possible that may creep into the western
Concho Valley or western Big Country before 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The dryline is forecast to advance to just west of our area, across
the Trans-Pecos region and Permian Basin by late afternoon. SBCAPE
values will increase to 2500 to 3500 J/KG by late afternoon east of
the dryline. Initially, quite a bit of convective inhibition is
expected across the region, which should hinder convective
development. By late afternoon or early evening as we reach peak
heating, the cap should be breached, and isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dryline, just to
our west. Some of this activity may move into our western
counties, with most of these storms dissipating by mid to late
evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.

On Wednesday, the dryline is forecast to once again advance east and
remain across the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos region, maybe just
slightly farther west than what we are expecting Tuesday. Similar to
to Tuesday a very unstable environment is forecast to develop east
of the dryline, with SBCAPE values increasing to 3K to 4K J/KG,
while 0-6KM Bulk Shear values generally remain between 25 and 35
knots. A weak upper level shortwave through is forecast to track
across the region late Wednesday, which should help to initiate
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms just west of the
forecast area, with some of this activity tracking east across the
region during the evening hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
hazards. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90.

On Thursday, a cold front is forecasts to track south across the
forecast area, with gusty north winds and cooler temperatures
filtering in behind it. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible along the front, with the higher rain
chances across our eastern counties where the better moisture will
reside. Another hot day is in store on Thursday with highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s.

Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are forecast behind the
front on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. There
is more uncertainty in the forecast as we head into the weekend
as there are differences in how far south the front will progress
and how far north the front will retreat. Overall, a slightly
cooler and wetter pattern is expected this weekend across the
forecast area. The details on the extent of any precipitation and
the timing will become more apparent as we get closer to the
event. Highs this weekend will generally be in the 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

MVFR stratus (and IFR at KSOA) will advect north from the Hill
Country into the Concho Valley early this morning, scattering out
mid/late morning. South wind gusts to 20 KTS expected at KABI late
evening across most of the terminals mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  90  67  87 /   0  10  20  20
San Angelo  63  92  68  89 /   0  10  20  20
Junction    64  92  69  89 /   0   0  10  30
Brownwood   61  87  67  84 /   0   0  10  20
Sweetwater  64  91  67  87 /   0  20  20  30
Ozona       64  88  68  85 /   0  10  20  20
Brady       62  88  68  85 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...04