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000
FXUS64 KSJT 140713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
213 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue across West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph
will to 5 to 15 mph this evening. A low level jet of 30 to 40
knots is forecast to develop late this evening, which may result
in an increase in winds to 15 to 20 mph, especially in the higher
elevations across the forecast area. Expect overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Stratus is forecast to overspread the
southern half of the area toward daybreak, with skies quickly
clearing by late morning or early afternoon. On Sunday, winds will
be quite a bit lighter than what we`ve experienced the last
couple of days, with south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph,
with higher gusts. NBM winds looked a bit too light, so I did bump
them up slightly. Highs on Sunday will be hot, with most
locations topping

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday
Night...

The weather gets more active early next week with severe weather
possible late Monday afternoon and night. A strong upper level
disturbance, with a negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will
rotate out to the northeast across the Southern and Central Plains
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring
like pattern across the Southern Plains 12Z Monday with southerly
flow(wind gusts 35 to 40 mph Monday evening) across our area to the
east of a dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate
instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and dryline
moving east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific cold
front overtakes dryline and upper level dynamics increase. A few
storms may be severe with strong vertical wind shear in the area. A
few supercells possible during initial development and convection
developing into a line of storms during Monday evening and overnight
across much of the area. The main hazards will be very large
hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Going with a low to
medium chance of rain, with rainfall amounts remaining below 1
inch.

For Tuesday, the storm system exits the area with breezy conditions
and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Looks like very warm days
Wednesday and Thursday as 850 MB thermal ridge will be over our
area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The weather get
more unsettled by Thursday through Saturday as cold front moves
south Thursday night and overrunning develops across the area next
weekend. Going with low to medium chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Also, cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions remain at all sites with just some upper level
clouds moving across the region, and lingering breezy winds mainly
across KBBD and KABI early this morning. Expect conditions to
remain VFR through 09Z this morning with low clouds coming back in
around 09Z or later. Model data continues to show at least MVFR
ceilings lingering around KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD through 15Z this
morning, with the potential for IFR ceilings during this time
frame. Expect low clouds to mix out by 16Z or 17Z as
southwesterly, dry winds move in. Winds today are expected to be
south/southwest around 10 knots, with some gusts to around 20
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  66  89  60 /   0   0  20  50
San Angelo  93  64  92  60 /   0   0   0  40
Junction    93  64  91  65 /   0   0   0  30
Brownwood   88  64  85  64 /   0   0  10  50
Sweetwater  92  66  89  59 /   0   0  20  40
Ozona       90  64  88  58 /   0   0   0  30
Brady       88  64  87  66 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...TP