260
FXUS64 KSJT 071819
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
119 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas today. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s
across our eastern counties and the Big Country, to the low to mid
90s elsewhere. Mainly dry conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours. The one caveat is that an isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon and early this
evening across our southeast counties. The most likely scenario is
that the cap will suppress any convection this afternoon, but if
the cap is breached, any storms that do develop could become
strong to severe. Confidence remain low though, so have no
included any mentionable PoPs in the current forecast. Expect
overnight lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures through late Wednesday, then a
pattern change to cooler conditions from thursday through the
weekend.

Weak ridging and fairly persistent zonal flow aloft, along with
dry and warm west to southwest flow at the surface, will keep
above normal temperatures across much of West Central Texas
through late Wednesday. A cold front begin to track southeastward
through the area Thursday, with little to no precipitation
expected given the dry nature of this system. However, a
shower/thunderstorms or two could potentially develop across the
far southeastern portions of our area during the afternoon and
evening hours on Thursday. Brought some slight chances into the
forecast during the day Thursday to show the possibility of a few
showers or thunderstorms developing over the Northwest Hill
country and portions of the Heartland.

Once the front passes through the area, and north to northeasterly
winds take hold over the area through the end of the week, we will
see some cooler temperatures remain across West Central Texas
through much of the weekend. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to only reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and
gradually warm through Monday reaching back into the 80s across
the area. With low level east to southeasterly flow proceeding
into the weekend, moisture is expected to start returning to the
area, potentially generating a few showers and thunderstorms
late Friday through Sunday. Overall, rain chances will pick up
over west central Texas Saturday afternoon and continuing through
the late afternoon/early evening on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Skies will be generally clear this afternoon through early
tonight. A scattered cumulus field could develop over far southern
and southeastern parts of our area late this afternoon into early
evening. While the possibility of a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for that same area, low
confidence in occurrence and placement precludes a specific
mention for our southern TAF sites. Expect low cloud development
over the southern third of our area and the Heartland (east-
central counties) late tonight into mid-morning Wednesday. To
account for this, carrying MVFR ceilings at our southern
terminals. The KSJT TAF site will be near the the northern edge of
the low cloud field. At this time, have a Tempo group for MVFR
ceiling at KSJT between 12Z and 15Z. Low cloud cover should break
up in the mid- to-late morning with generally clear skies expected
area wide by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  91  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  68  97  60  91 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    71  98  64  95 /   0   0   0  20
Brownwood   69  93  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater  65  90  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       67  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       71  93  63  87 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19