Text Products for AFD Issued by SLC

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 190934
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
334 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist over
Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days. High
pressure will build in by the weekend, bringing a noticeable
warming trend. The next storm system may impact the area by the
middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Utah and southwest Wyoming
remain under a roughly zonal flow this morning with a boundary
stalled over southern Utah. A weak low is beginning to move
onshore along the California coast, and this system will track
east across the Desert Southwest through Saturday.

The main impact over the forecast area will be to increase
coverage of high clouds, as already evidenced in observations and
on satellite imagery. The system, however, will also provide just
enough instability for an outside chance (20 percent or so) of a
few afternoon and early evening showers over the higher terrain,
primarily in the vicinity of the boundary over central and
southern Utah.

While little change in high temperatures compared to yesterday is
anticipated over southern Utah, northern and Utah and southwest
Utah will see a bit of a warming trend with maxes returning to
near normal for this time of year. As high pressure moves back
over Utah and southwest Wyoming later Saturday into Sunday behind
the Pacific trough, temperatures will warm more noticeably with
maxes averaging 10F above climo by Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...On Sunday, the forecast region
will see zonal flow to weak shortwave ridging aloft. While potential
remains for a few isolated showers to develop over the high terrain,
majority of the region will remain dry with afternoon highs around
10 to 15 degrees above climatological normal. By Monday, a weak
grazing shortwave trough will help nudge a frontal boundary
southward through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming before largely
stalling. With very limited moisture available, precipitation
chances remain low, and this boundary will primarily just help to
push temperatures downward several degrees at locations north of the
boundary. As a result, while afternoon high temperatures across
central to southern Utah remain around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, elsewhere will see temps back near to slightly above normal.
Tuesday sees this boundary retreat back out of region as shortwave
ridging returns, and thus conditions are expected to be similar to
that of Sunday.

From midweek onward through the remainder of the forecast period,
modest consensus is noted on a return to a bit more of an unsettled
pattern, though confidence in the details remains a bit murky and
dependent on the exact evolution of the flow. In general, guidance
supports a trough of some fashion beginning to work into the W
CONUS, with deterministic guidance depicting potential for an
associated cutoff lobe south of the primary northern stream
shortwave. These features continue to progress inland thereafter,
with most model differences seemingly arising on how quickly the
cutoff lobe can phase back in with the northern stream, and in turn
how amplified the overall trough becomes and when. In any case, the
increased moisture and synoptic forcing will yield a wetter pattern,
and cooler H7 temperatures associated with the trough will bring
about cooler daily temperatures accordingly... But the day to day
details and exactly how wet/cool are still a bit uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Weak passing disturbance nearby will result in an
increase in mid/high level cloud cover, but VFR conditions to
persist. Winds remain light and somewhat variable into mid morning,
with better confidence in light NW winds redeveloping after ~15Z or
so. Similar pattern anticipated moving into Friday night with
relaxing NW winds likely becoming light and variable to an extent.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Weak passing disturbance will
result in an increased mix of mostly mid/high level cloud cover, but
anticipate minimal precipitation chances and VFR conditions to
persist. Winds at area terminals also expected to remain fairly
light, with directions diurnally normal to at times a bit variable.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
