556
FXUS62 KTAE 022312
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
712 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft will persist through the near term with high
pressure building in at the surface. As a result, south-
southwesterly flow will continue pushing moisture across the area
with higher dewpoints likely along the Emerald Coast. Tonight,
with ridging aloft, a warm inversion above the surface should
persist resulting in some fog formation along the Emerald Coast
pushing somewhat inland. Locally dense fog is possible with
visibilities less than 1 mile in some spots. Overnight low
temperatures will generally hover around the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms are possible along the FL Big Bend
and SW GA as the seabreeze pushes inland in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, a remnant boundary propagating east from earlier
convection over AL may enhance precipitation chances across our SW
GA counties. PoPs will generally range from 15-30% across the area
due to weaker forcing. Inverted-V soundings appear evident with
DCAPE approaching 800J/kg, suggesting that a couple stronger gusts
may be possible with these storms. High temperatures are forecast to
reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail this evening but areas of fog are likely to
develop, especially across the Florida Panhandle, which will bring
IFR possibly LIFR restrictions around 05z to 13z at ECP, and
possibly TLH tonight into Thursday morning. Confidence on the
eastward extent into TLH remains low, but have mentioned fog in
the TAF. Elsewhere, fog is possible at DHN, ABY, and VLD, but
confidence in IFR conditions, or fog developing at all at these
terminals, remains low so have not mentioned in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into
the weekend. There may be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and moist conditions will continue across the area as
southerly flow persist over the next several days. With this, the
seabreeze will push inland each afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms forming. Gusty and erratic winds with lightning are
possible near and within these storms. Rain and thunderstorm chances
increase notably on Saturday, particularly for SW GA. Patchy to
locally dense fog is possible each morning due to the warm and moist
pattern, particularly for our FL counties. Notably high mixing
heights will yield fair to generally good dispersions in the
afternoon, though some areas could see locally elevated dispersions
if the seabreeze is stronger than forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Minor river flooding remains ongoing at Manatee Springs along the
Suwannee with water levels expected to fall into action stage
tonight or early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the following
rivers are expected to remain in action stage over the next
several days: the St. Marks at Newport, the lower Suwannee, and
the Aucilla on Lamont. Outside of that, no new riverine flooding
is expected.

In terms of rain fall, we could see up to around 0.25 to 0.75
inches of rain along and east of the Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola Rivers. Areas west will be lighter and range around
0.0 to 0.25 inches of rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  90  68  88 /   0  30  10  50
Panama City   66  84  68  85 /   0  10   0  30
Dothan        63  90  67  87 /   0  20  10  50
Albany        65  90  67  87 /   0  30  30  70
Valdosta      67  90  68  86 /  20  20  20  60
Cross City    65  90  65  87 /  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  69  80  69  80 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR