518
FXUS62 KTAE 050521
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
121 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Fairly significant rainfall continues across portions of Houston
county Alabama and especially through Early, Miller counties where
these areas have possibly accumulated 4-6+ inches of doppler radar
indicated rainfall. It continues to rain in these areas and a
flash flood warning continues through the next several hours. Rain
and thunderstorms continue points east and south of this area and
raised pops through 6Z to account for this and is close to
HRRR/CONSShort guidance. After 6Z, models trend to dissipate most
rainfall leaving an overnight period where another round of fog is
likely through the Florida panhandle and adjacent southeast
Alabama counties. Could also have fog in other areas that received
rainfall this afternoon/evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong to marginally
severe) this afternoon should persist into the evening hrs thanks
to a couple of shortwave troughs providing some upper-level
support amidst a moist/unstable airmass. Cooler temperatures aloft
associated with the lead shortwave directly overhead may be
supporting robust updrafts as some convection has exhibited tall
cores, frequent lightning, and occasional downburst signatures.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been observed as well. The trailing
shortwave is aiding in some large-scale lift for non-seabreeze
driven convection north of the FL state line. Remnant outflow
boundaries could also lead to lead to additional development. This
activity should diminish later tonight. Fog and low stratus
should develop in its place towards early tomorrow morning while
low temperatures once again dip to unseasonably warm mid/upper
60s.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are poised to
develop tomorrow afternoon via the seabreeze and perhaps an upstream
shortwave lifting across the Upper MS Valley. Coverage appears less
than today with the best chances (up to ~40%) in the Eastern FL Big
Bend into South-Central GA. Forecast soundings depict a
moist/unstable/semi-Inverted V profile which would support gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, a building subtropical
ridge from the Gulf ushers very warm conditions. High temperatures
are poised to flirt with 90 degrees away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Another weak shortwave passes over the area on Monday, perhaps
bringing a slight boost to our rain chances Monday afternoon. The
highest rain chances will generally be closer to the I-75 corridor
and the Suwannee River Valley (up to 50%), decreasing to the
south and west. Some gusty winds may be possible in the stronger
storms Monday afternoon. Wouldn`t rule out some small hail either
given the shortwave on top of us giving us cooler mid-level
temperatures and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates. Outside
of storms, highs will be in the upper 80s for most areas, though
closer to the mid 80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the middle
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Mid-level ridging will build across the area mid-week, then begin
to flatten out as another trough approaches from the northwest.
Recent ensemble guidance trends indicate that the ridging may not
be quite as robust as previous forecasts and that troughing to our
north and west could be a bit more progressive and stronger. While
it will still be hot, it may not be quite as hot as previously
thought. Highs could still reach the mid-90s in a few spots
Thursday and maybe Friday, but most will likely top out in the
lower 90s. Lows will become more muggy through the week as they
climb into the lower 70s.

A cold front sinks into our forecast area on Friday into Friday
night, which will bring an increase in rain chances Friday
afternoon. While it`s too early to determine any severe potential
with this system, we`ll keep an eye on it as it appears there
could be some overlap of adequate shear and instability on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A mix of fog and low stratus will be possible early this morning
but should dissipate by mid/late morning. A few showers and storms
will be possible this afternoon, particularly across the eastern
FL Big Bend and SW Georgia, however coverage is expected to be too
low to include in the tafs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally light south to southeast winds are expected through the
middle of next week with high pressure off to our east. Seas will
remain around 2 to 3 feet. Some increase in winds are possible
mid to late week as the pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
afternoon via seabreeze initiation. Convection will be capable of
gusty/erratic winds and frequent lightning. Coverage should be less
compared to today. Best chances are over the Eastern FL Big Bend
through the I-75 corridor. Otherwise, very warm conditions are on
tap for Sunday with forecast inland high temperatures around 90 and
heat indices a few degrees higher.

For Monday, we are looking at more diurnally driven storms to focus
along the seabreeze, then drift north past the FL state line.
Similarly warm conditions return as highs surge into the upper 80s
to near 90. Brisk southerly winds combined with mixing heights up to
5000+ ft yield widespread high dispersions Monday afternoon. By
Tuesday, a strong ridge of high pressure aims to suppress convection
and serve as a primer for even hotter weather as the work week
progresses.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Localized heavy downpours are possible in the stronger showers and
storms over the next couple days. PWATs are forecast to be near
1.3 to 1.6 inches, which is around the 75th-90th percentile for
this time of year. These storms won`t be widespread, and the
heavier totals of 2-3 inches will be fairly localized. Thus, only
nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas is expected. Due
to the sporadic nature of these storms, river systems will likely
remain unphased by localized downpours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  67  88  68 /  20   0  30   0
Panama City   84  69  84  70 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        88  67  88  67 /  20   0  20   0
Albany        88  67  88  68 /  20  10  40  10
Valdosta      89  67  88  67 /  30  10  50  10
Cross City    89  66  88  67 /  40   0  30  10
Apalachicola  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Young