212
FXUS62 KTBW 050043
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
843 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

No adjustments to the evening forecast. Broken line of showers
currently from around Sumter County generally following I-75 south
to around the Tampa Bay area with an occasional embedded storm,
with additional convection across SWFL still affecting parts of
DeSoto, Charlotte and Lee counties. This activity should wane
through the evening giving way to partly cloudy skies with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s with lower 70s along the
immediate coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

There is more moisture in place across the penesula this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Latest
visible satellite imagery indicates an expansive cumulus field. Not
seeing much in the way of vertical development but expect this will
begin later this afternoon. PW values will continue to rise this
afternoon and evening to around 1.6 inches. These values are around
the 90th percentile for early May climatology. Additionally, there
is a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving through the region. All
of these factors coupled with peak afternoon heating should lead to
our best chance for showers/storms in quite a few days. Chances will
range from 20-50% with higher chances across the interior. Activity
should peak around 00z (8pm) and begin to diminish in coverage and
intensity shortly after this timeframe. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Moisture looks to fade a bit tomorrow afternoon with PW dropping by
a tenth of an inch or so. Additionally, mid-level ridging builds in
with anticyclonic flow aloft. Due to these factors, decided to lower
PoPs slightly for Sunday afternoon. Still expect isolated to
scattered showers to develop with precipitation chances around 20-
40%. Highs will once again be on the warm side in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Similar conditions are forecast on Monday with PoPs
tapering off in the 20-30% range Monday afternoon.

The surface high will move overhead by Tuesday and slightly drier
air will move into the region. PoPs will continue to decrease to
only around 10-20% on Tuesday. Upper level heights will continue to
build across the region throughout the remainder of the week. These
increasing heights will lead to climbing temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast
period will be in the low 80s to mid 90s. Lows will generally be
near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Early evening convection likely to linger through around 02Z or so
with the potential for brief restrictions before diminishing. Flow
becomes variable to light offshore overnight then increasing out
of the SE during the morning before shifting onshore during the
afternoon. Slightly drier conditions on Sunday may result in
reduced rain chances, so opted to exclude mention this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week,
with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each
afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday
and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind
speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will
remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the
waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Afternoon/evening showers/storms are forecast to develop over the
next couple of days. Drier conditions will arrive around mid-week.
Minimum RH values will drop down into the 30-40% range across
the interior next week but winds will be below red flag criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  88  73  90 /  20  30  20  20
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  40  30  20  20
GIF  69  90  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  71  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  65  90  65  91 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  74  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana