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000
FXUS62 KTBW 091835
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Ridging over the area will keep the warm conditions in place
tonight into Wednesday with occasionally breezy daytime winds.

The potent southern stream upper low will continue to spin through
TX and the S Plains Wednesday further developing the W Gulf surface
storm system with significant upper dynamics to produce active
and severe weather through the S Mississippi River Valley
Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient over the E Gulf and
FL Peninsula increasing mean layer moisture on strong southerly
low level flow through Wed night.

Thursday is looking quite active with numerous weather hazards as
the convective complex moves from the FL Panhandle into GA on
Thursday morning. Even with the upper system slowly lifting
further from the area a series of vort maxes is expected to
maintain thunderstorm activity ahead of the advancing cold front.
SPC continues to advertise a severe threat as storms should be in
the Nature Coast in the morning timeframe shifting SWward into the
Tampa Bay region and I-4 corridor mid day to early afternoon then
weaken and continue into SW FL later in the afternoon into Thu
evening before exiting the CWA.

The strong winds over the E Gulf waters is expected to produce
coastal flooding of 2-4 ft in the typical areas around the Big
Bend to 1-3ft around Tampa Bay and 1-2 ft in SW FL. This wind will
also create large choppy breaking waves and rip currents along
areas beaches through Fri.

High pressure to build into the region behind the front through
Friday with temps near or slightly below climate normals for the
end of the week and into the weekend. This will be a much drier
airmass for pleasant days and cool nights.

The high pressure area will shift into the W Atlantic early next
week with warming temps and slowly increasing moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Occasionally gusty SE winds and VFR conditions continue this
afternoon with SCT-BKN cu field AOA 04k ft and BKN cirrus shield
aloft. Winds to decrease aft 00Z but then become gusty again Wed
aft 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient will tighten over the Eastern Gulf waters as
a Gulf storm system develops in the W Gulf tonight into Wednesday
with elevated winds and seas into the SCEC/SCA categories
producing hazardous marine conditions. The system will move into
the E Gulf and Deep South Thursday with strong and gusty S-SW winds
and seas ahead of a cold front and line of thunderstorms, small
craft should remain in port until conditions improve. Strong high
pressure will build into the region with breezy NW-N winds and
seas Friday. Winds and seas will finally decrease over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday with
gusty SE-S winds and high dispersion values. A cold front will
move through the region Thursday with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along the front with good chances for rain. Strong
high pressure will build into the region with slightly cooler but
much drier conditions along with breezy NW-N winds Friday. Winds
will decrease through the weekend but min RHs will remain very
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  86  72  83 /   0   0   0  80
FMY  66  88  71  87 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  65  88  70  87 /   0   0   0  70
SRQ  67  87  72  85 /   0   0   0  70
BKV  61  88  67  84 /   0   0  10  80
SPG  69  84  73  81 /   0   0   0  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD