Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
934 FXXX10 KWNP 191231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 00-03UT 1.33 3.67 4.00 03-06UT 2.67 3.33 3.67 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 2.33 2.33 2.67 12-15UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.00 15-18UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 2.67 18-21UT 3.00 4.00 2.67 21-00UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 May due to the arrival of the 17 May CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 19-21 May. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2024 May 19 May 20 May 21 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 19-21 May, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3685.