312
FXUS64 KTSA 061756
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Only a few adjustments to the short-term forecast were made,
specifically increasing PoPs (up to 20-30%) across the entire
forecast area late this morning into early this afternoon. Latest
hi-res convective allowing models have been consistent in
producing warm-sector isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms between 18-20z (1-3 PM CDT), with main focus area
across southeast OK into northwest AR. There is still some
uncertainty on the convective evolution and how organized these
storms could potentially get. But given today`s setup and
environment, there is potential for a few strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms (main concerns: large hail and strong wind
gusts) early-mid afternoon with this activity. Will continue to
monitor conditions closely.

Overall, the previous short-term forecast remains valid and on
track. Please see the short-term discussion below.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY....

Latest data continue to support the likelihood for significant
severe weather across portions of eastern OK today. It is a day to
remain weather aware and have trusted weather sources for your
information.

Amplified trough is currently aligned through the Intermountain
West while rapid moisture return is underway downstream across the
southern Plains. 00z upper air data sampled extremes within both
the wind field associated with the trough and the source region of
moisture return. Additionally, low level vapor imagery reveal the
EML spreading east across the west TX and quickly replacing the
more lackluster lapse rates downstream. The combination will yield
a rapid expansion of instability across the warm sector by early
afternoon while wind fields aloft steadily strengthen through the
day. A complicating and more uncertain feature is the weak warm
front aligned along the Red River valley its evolution through the
day. A typical model bias across the local region is to suggest
early day convection within these recovering airmass patterns,
however today may be a more valid scenario. Any early afternoon
storms will pose a severe risk and, should the coverage exceed
forecasts, then a longer lived severe weather window will be
realized.

A much more certain storm evolution will be severe storms quickly
developing across western OK by mid afternoon and spreading
eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Deep layer shear
orientation will favor cellular storms with the initial
development and this more favorable orientation holds true through
the overnight hours with southward extent. Further north a trend
toward broken line segments appears probable by mid to late
evening. This transition and varying storm mode appears likely to
felt largely across the local forecast area impacting predominant
hazards and warning configurations. Short term CAM ensemble
guidance have good agreement on a notable strengthening of the low
to mid level wind fields between 00z-06z firmly across the
forecast area and, while the exact impacts are unknown, the
likelihood for significant severe weather is expected to accompany
this evolution. The southern extent of the severe storm coverage
will be limited by the residual capping inversion in wake of the
lifting upper wave. However, several CAM members show long track
UH swaths on the southern periphery of the convection. Any
established strong supercell will continue well into an otherwise
strongly capped airmass and this scenario appears valid today
given shear vector orientation. The risk of severe weather will
continue through northwest Arkansas late tonight and significant
severe potential may expand that far east though uncertainty is
higher at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A brief lull in severe weather will occur Tuesday, however airmass
recovery will be well underway ahead of the next upper wave and
associated cold front. Intense low level jet develops Tuesday
night with associated warm moist advection potentially igniting storms
by early Wed morning across NE OK / NW AR. Should morning storms
develop then a quick transition toward severe weather is likely
given forecast soundings. Otherwise, the focus will be along the
advancing cold front and early day convection appears likely as
minimal capping is expected ahead of the front. While low level
flow is more veered than the Monday event, the presence of strong
instability and ample shear suggest higher end severe weather is
likely. The focus for storms will steadily spread east of the
forecast area by mid to late afternoon.

And then a more prolonged break in the active pattern arrives.
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected for late week
into the weekend with the next chance of precip early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low-level stratus (MVFR/IFR cigs) continues to plague portions of
the region early this afternoon. Still anticipating widespread VFR
over the next couple of hours. Added SHRA/-TSRA at MLC, FSM, FYV,
XNA, and ROG for mid-late afternoon. If any shower/storm moves
over these terminals, a brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may
occur. A better chance of thunderstorms will occur mid-late
evening and into the overnight hours as a squall line is forecast
to develop and move through the region. The squall line will bring
in very heavy rainfall, very gusty winds, and potentially large
hail. Exact timing and duration is still somewhat uncertain, but
the convective line of storms should push through and clear the
area northwest-to-southeast by 12z Tuesday. After the storms push
through, MVFR cigs may linger through the mid-morning hours
before clouds clear and VFR prevails.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  59  83  61 /  20  80  10  10
FSM   82  69  86  65 /  20  80  10   0
MLC   81  67  85  66 /  20  70  10   0
BVO   79  55  81  56 /  20  80  10  10
FYV   80  64  83  61 /  20  80  10  10
BYV   80  64  82  59 /  20  80  10   0
MKO   80  64  81  61 /  20  90  10  10
MIO   80  61  80  58 /  20  90  10  10
F10   80  63  82  62 /  20  80  10  10
HHW   81  69  84  66 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67