Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 261815
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
215 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Maria will track northward off the North Carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.
High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of late this morning, Hurricane Maria was located about 175
miles SE of HAT moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few
bands of light showers well ahead of Maria, rotating onshore
acrs portions of SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, NE winds were
spreading low level moisture across much of the CWA.

Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps
slightly W of due N, as an upper low drops sewd acrs FL.
Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in a continuation of 20-50% PoPs,mainly along and E of I-95
(though will have 20% PoPs into the southern Piedmont as well).
QPF will be minimal for most areas, with highest amounts over
extreme SE VA and NE NC where highest PoPs are fcst. Highs today
will range mostly from the upper 70s to lower 80s under a
mostly cloudy sky (except for partly sunny conditions over the
far W/NW). Breezy along the coast with a NE wind 15-20 mph,
with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Maria reaches about 160mi ESE of Cape Hatteras by this evening/00z
Wed, around 140-150 miles E of Cape Hatteras by 12z Wed, and
then 150-180 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Thu, as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has Maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall acrs SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a
lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest
amounts over extreme SE VA and NE NC. There is now a good
possibility for strong wind gusts south of Cape Charles on the
coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from ORF/VA Beach
to the Currituck County beaches (including the Currituck Sound).
Therefore, we have upgraded Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border (656).
High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will maintain PoPs of 20-40% east of
I-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE NC Tue night/Wed), with slight chc
PoPs into the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from
around Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC. The
biggest impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach
erosion along/near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the
upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland,
after morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z Thu, Maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ENE of Cape Hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in
the day. Will carry lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US
Friday and Saturday.  This trough will serve to escort Maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night.  This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region.  Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s Thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday.  But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the Delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across New
England and down the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers have been moving in from the coast
periodically affecting ORF/PHF/ECG. Mainly IFR cigs continue
across SE VA, while they have genly lifted to MVFR ~1500 ft at
RIC/SBY/ECG. Gusty NE winds prevail across the SE through
tonight/Wed (gusts to 30-35 kt possible at ORF/ECG). Skies
become variably cloudy inland on Wed (stay mostly cloudy through
midday near the coast). Winds diminish and skies become mostly
clear Wed night into early Thu though N winds stay gusty at the
coast.

Outlook: Generally dry and quiet from Thu into the upcoming
weekend. Will probably see a brief period of clouds Fri night
with a secondary cold frontal passage, but conditions look to
remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Update as of 1030AM EDT...upgraded to Gale Warning for the
mouth of the Bay and ANZ654 from Cape Charles to Parramore
Island.

Given the track of Maria and the broadening wind field...tropical
storm warnings remain in effect from Cape Charles Light to
Currituck Beach Light. With the track staying far enough
offshore...it still does not look like sustained TS winds will
be in the Bay...but there should be frequent gusts to 35 kt for
a period tonight into Wed at the mouth of the Bay. As such...have
upgraded to Gale warnings for the mouth of the Bay, as well as
marine zone ANZ654 from north of Cape Charles to Parramore
Island thru 7pm & 10pm Wed respectively. Winds/seas will start
to improve Wednesday Night as Maria rapidly moves east. SCAs are
in places for the rivers and northern 2 zones over the Bay.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of Hurricane Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements will remain in effect for locations
adjacent to the Bay and James River thru the afternoon high tide
cycle. Tidal departures are currently running 1.0-1.5 ft. Expect
the departure to steadily increase as Maria moves N through
Wed. Expect departures of 2.0 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday afternoon
across the southern Bay and areas south of Cape Henry along the
ocean...w/ 1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern
coastal waters. These values are similar to what we saw last
week in Jose. However...the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft
less this week than last week in Jose. This should keep any
coastal flooding confined to minor during the time of high tide
on Wed. The high tide cycle late tonight/early Wed morning is
not expected to reach minor flooding thresholds. Therefore...no
statements/advisories will be necessary.

As with Jose...the main concern will end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the entire coastal waters through Wednesday for
nearshore waves of 8+ feet.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     635>638-650-652.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM/JEF
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB/JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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