Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 280933
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves farther out to sea during today. A warm
front lifts through the area later today through tonight, with
broad southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm well above
normal today and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach
from the west Wednesday, and cross the region Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning, high pressure was cntrd well off the coast,
while a warm front was laying acrs the Gulf Coast States NW into
the srn/cntrl Plains. The high will slide farther out to sea
during today, while the warm front with its associated
energy/moisture lifts into W/NW portions of the area later this
aftn into early this evening. Under a partly to mostly cloudy
sky, south winds will help temps climb into the upper 60s to mid
70s...except lower to mid 60s along the Bay/Ocean over the Lower
MD and VA erh shore. Have 20-40% Pops for showers this aftn into
early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Will have 20-60% Pops for showers this evening into Wed morning,
as the warm front and its energy/lift translates acrs the region
to the coast. Highest Pops will be acrs the wrn and nrn counties.
Generally mostly cloudy to cloudy with lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

A cold front will then approach from the west during Wed. Think
much of the day will be dry, except 20-50% PoPs for the nrn/NW
areas. With the fropa holding off until Wed night, temps will
be even warmer than high temps today. Highs on Wed will be arnd
80 or the lower 80s many areas, upper 60s to upper 70s over the
Lower MD and VA ern shore. The cold front Wed night will be as
strong as the one last Sat, with SPC including the Fcst area in
a slight risk for severe wx. One issue however will be the timing
of the front, with the best chance of tstms (Wed evening) being
after dark. That may diminish the severe potential, however not
removing the possibility entirely, as deep layer shear and forcing
is quite strong. Have Pops 60-70% for Wed evening into Wed
night, then Pops quickly diminishing/pcpn chances ending from NW
to SE later Wed night into early Thu morning, as the front
pushes toward or off the coast. Lows Wed night ranging fm the
mid 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period begins Thursday morning with overnight
precipitation off the coast by sunrise. An intensifying surface low
over the Northeast States will move quickly to the east into
Atlantic Canada. High pressure over the Plains States Thursday
builds into the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday. A short wave
trough in the northern stream on Friday will bring an increase in
clouds and possibly a few showers to northern part of the
area...especially the northern neck and Lower Eastern Shore. A
secondary cold front moves through Friday morning. Dry weather will
prevail for the weekend. The aforementioned high pressure system
will move off the coast Sunday. The next frontal system approaches
early next week with increasing clouds and a slight chance for
showers Monday.

High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s Thursday
through Saturday with some 40s northeast portions Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures warm into the 60s Sunday and mid 60s to lower
70s Monday. Lows are expected to be in the 30s Friday through Sunday
mornings except 20s inland areas Saturday morning. Low temperatures
Monday morning will range through the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move farther out to sea during today. A warm
front and its associated energy/moisture will lift into and acrs
the region later today thru tonight. This will result in sctd
showers at RIC/SBY especially, and possibly PHF/ORF. IFR cigs
will be possible at all TAF sites late tonight into Wed morning,
due to the S winds and pcpn.

Outlook...A strong cold front will approach the region from the
west on Wed, then cross the region and move off the coast Wed
evening/night. This cold front will bring showers/tstms likely
Wed evening/night. High pressure returns Thu and Thu night,
followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine wx remains quiet into tonight. Sfc hi pres drifts farther
E and away from the coast through this afternoon into tonight as
a warm front lifts across the local waters. Starting out w/
light SE winds gradually becoming S through the day while
increasing just a bit. Increasing SSW winds tonight into
Wed...though w/ strong WAA over the colder waters...the
stability will limit mixing/higher wind speeds except near the
shoreline (through Wed afternoon). A strong cold front
approaches from the W Wed afternoon...crossing the waters Wed
night. CAA in the wake of the cold front will allow for higher
wind speeds to transfer down. A short period of near gales
possible w/ the initial cold air push Wed night...wind probs
attm only show potential for gales (both sustained/gusts) mainly
less than 10%...except for the far northern ocean waters where
probs approach 25-30% (for gusts). Moderate- strong SCA
lingering until late morning/early afternoon Thu before winds
wane. Another SCA will likely be needed Friday and Friday night
behind a secondary cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for March 1st:

 RIC...80 in 1976
 ORF...81 in 1918
 SBY...80 in 1976
 ECG...82 in 2012

Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the
top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3
warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest.

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 49.9 (1890)
  2) 48.5 (1976)
  3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
  1) 52.4 (1890)
  2) 50.5 (1909)
  3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
  1) 46.1 (1976)
  2) 45.8 (1984)
  3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
  1) 52.1 (1990)
  2) 51.8 (1939)
  3) 50.3 (1976)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ630>638-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB/LSA
CLIMATE...AKQ



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