Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






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