Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141519
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NR 1035 MB ARCTIC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN SUN. NNW WNDS RMN
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH ERN PORTIONS ATTM...WILL BE WANING THROUGH THIS
AFTN. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO
KY/TN TODAY...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND
THIS FAR E) DURING THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CLOSE IN TRACK / TIMING FOR THE NEXT SYSTM BUT DIFFER IN
THERMAL PROFILES. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM SOLN FOR THIS FCST
GIVEN HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
THE ENTIRE "GAMBIT" OF PCPN TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION SNOW...THEN MIXED PCPN LEADING TO ICE ACCUMS ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON...HVY RAIN WITH ISLTD TSTRMS ALONG THE
SERN CSTL AREAS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON NITE / TUE MORN.

HIGH PRS SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVE WITH THE MSTR FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING PCPN
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARND 03Z (THIS SOMEWHAT QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) AND TOWARD THE COAST BY 12Z. THIS IS THE
EASY PART OF THE FCST AS THICKNESSES / THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO START OFF AS SNOW. CHC POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY /
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY 12Z. LOW TMPS OCCUR A BIT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THEN STDY OUT DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...UPR TEENS TO L20S ELSEWHERE. QPF FCST GNRLLY
AOB .15 SO XPCT ACCULMS OF AN INCH OR LESS IVOF I95 CORRIDOR XPCT 1-
2 IN WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 12Z. XPCT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE GIVEN THE SNOW
WILL FALL WITH SFC TMPS IN THE L20S.

A MESSY DAY AHEAD MON AS THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING
NRTHWRD ABOVE THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE
NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS NRTH BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW
COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1 ...XPCG A
GENERAL 2-4" ACCUMLS WRN MOST CNTYS...1-2" I95 CORRIDOR WITH AN INCH
OR LESS TOWARD THE CSTL PLAIN...EXCEPT ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION
OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION)...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. BUFKIT SHOWING
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TRANSITION THAN THE COLDER NAM. KEPT TEMPS
AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16.
OTW...TMPS SLOWLY RISE REACHING THE M30S I95 CORRIDOR TO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL ICE ACCUMLS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF
I95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.

RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE MON EVE THRU TUE MORN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA
COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NITE. MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF DEEP
LIFT / OMEGA LATE MON NITE INTO TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA SW-NE TUE MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING CDFRNT MOVG OFFSHORE BY 00Z WED. ADDED R+ TO THE GRIDS AFTR
06Z MON THRU 15Z TUE ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTAB IS LIMITED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISLTD THUNDER TUE MORN AS THE SYSTM MOVES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. LOWS MON NITE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z TUE WITH STDY OR SLOWLY
RISING READINGS. TMPS BY 12Z TUE RANGE FROM THE M30S NW TO L50S SERN
CSTL AREAS.

MDT TO HVY TUE MORN WILL QUICKLY END AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE RGN
AFTR FROPA. SOM SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL ACROSS WRN CNTYS IN THE AFTRN.
HIGHS TRICKY ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NR 60 SERN AREAS.

DECISION TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. DECIDED TO UPGRADE NWRN
MOST CNTYS TO A WARNING (3-4 IN OF SNOW....10 TO .20 ICE) ENDG AT
09Z MON. WENT WITH A 2 TIERED WX WX ADVSRY...FIRST ONE FOR THE I95
/ I85 CORRIDORS FOR 2-3 IN SNOW...LESS THAN .10 ICE) ENDG AT 00Z AND
SCND ONE 1-2 CNTYS FRTHR EAST ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN FOR 1-2 INCH
ACCUM AND LTL ICE) ENDG AT 21Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NW WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 25-30KT ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 20KT LOWER JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE. SCA FLAGS SHOULD END FOR BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND BY 1000 AM.
WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25KT BY 1000 AM HOWEVER SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5FT UNTIL THE AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE SLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT ALL WATERS LATE MON
EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES
BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A MUCH
WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THU UNTIL A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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