Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301055
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will dissipate over the area today as a
tropical depression lingers off the Carolina coast. This system
will stay offshore and push farther out to sea Wednesday into
Thursday. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front dropping into
northern portions of the fa with a poorly-organized Tropical
Depression #8 115 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. This system is
expected to become Tropical Storm Hermine as it slide NW today
then N/NE tonight, staying offshore. With the local area remaining
west of the storm track expect little to no impact other than a
small chance of rain this aftn/tonight near the coast and high rip
current risks (see tides/coastal flooding section below). As for
temps, expect highs averaging in the upr 80s to near 90 today
with lows tonight in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tropical Storm Hermine is progged to lift off the NC Outer Banks
Wed...posing little threat to the local area.

Very little change to conditions expected Wed. Will have a little
greater chance that some outer rain bands clip the NC coast (will
have a 40% POP there, 20% or less elsewhere). Highs will average
in the u80s-l90s Wed (m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in
the u60s- l70s. A stronger cold front is progged to push through
the area Thu. Will have ~40% POPS most areas by late Thu am
through Thu aftn. highs near 90 F S to mid 80s N.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Amplifying upper level trough swings through the region late Thu
night into Friday morning, pushing a stronger frontal boundary
through the region Thursday afternoon and night. Models in good
agreement regarding chances for showers and storms during this
period (mainly) Thursday afternoon and evening and have bumped
chances to high chance over the southern half of the area.

Forecast confidence still low wrt TD9 and its timing and eventual
track. Still expect this system to slide along the aforementioned
front, eventually getting shunted out to sea by the upper trough.
However, there remains the possibility for some lingering showers
over far SE VA and NE NC for Fri/Sat. Thereafter, Models now
painting a bit of a cooler, drier picture over the weekend, courtesy
of low to mid level ridging building across the region behind the
departing system. have gone with a dry forecast for most
areas Saturday, and areawide Sunday/Monday.

Warmest day of the period comes on Thursday, with maxima well into
the 80s to around 90 inland. Highs drop off into the lower 80s
(upper 70s at the beaches) with persistent onshore winds post-
frontal Fri/Sat. Highs Sunday and Monday nudge back toward climo
values into early next week, low to mid 80s. Low temps running close
to normal Thu night as precip/front exit the coast. Drier
w/comfortable overnight temps over the weekend with early morning
lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to start off the 12Z TAF period. Mainly high clouds across the
region this morning ahead of Tropical Depression 8. Some lower
clouds are possible by this aftn but VFR conditions should
prevail. Winds will be out of the NE and light, except at KECG
where 10-15 kt winds are expected this aftn. Mainly dry weather is
expected tonight aside from an outside chance of a shra at
KECG/KORF. With light winds inland and high rh Wed morng, fog is
possible especially at KRIC/KSBY. A somewhat higher chance for
shras/tstms arrives Thu aftn/evening as a cold front pushes
through the area. Dry/VFR Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect light E-NE flow across the waters this morning. A
weak/diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the far northern
waters early this morning, as the center of T.D. 8 slowly lifts NW
just SE of Cape Hatteras.

Long period swell occurring from TD 8, which is expected to
strengthen to a Tropical Storm later today, has bumped nearshore
seas to 4-5 ft offshore our far southern waters early this morning.
Wavewatch and NWPS agree wrt building seas to 5-6ft south/4-5ft
north by midday through early Wed evening. SCA flags, mainly for
hazardous seas, are now in place for the coastal waters through
early Wed evening. An SCA also continues for the mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay zone w/onshore flow expected to build waves to ~4ft
over the mouth of the Bay this aftn through Wednesday.

Wind speeds remain sub-sca today and tonight, and as TD Eight tracks
NE and away from the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and early Wed,
expect that wind speeds will slacken off a bit further, dropping off
to 10kt or less by Wed night. Winds then veer around to the S-SE Wed
evening, W-SW Late Wed night ahead of an approaching (stronger) cold
front. That front will drop across the waters Thu morning through
Thu night, with seas gradually veering around from W-NW to N by
early Friday morning. Seas average 2-3ft/1-2ft waves Bay. Frontal
boundary shifts offshore Thu night into Fri morning w/ a brief
window of SCA winds possible Thu night into Friday morning. Seas
progged to build up to 4-5ft south of the VA/NC border during this
period by Wavewatch Thu night and again with a subsequent secondary
surge Fri night. Otherwise, seas should average 3-ft Fri/early Fri
night...waves 2-3ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have upgraded to high risk for rip currents Virginia Beach
southward due to long period swell, 4-5 ft nearshore waves, and
favorable swell direction. Moderate risk for rip currents exist
for the northern beaches. Low tide Tuesday occurs between
12:30-1:30pm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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