Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/LSA


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