Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
708 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO...CRUISING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. CANADIAN
RADAR IS SHOWING SCT SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS RED LAKE
ONTARIO (CYRL)...OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF KINL. HAVE SPREAD
POPS WEST ALONG THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WISCONSIN.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AT KELO/KHYR SHOW GENERALLY 500-900 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DLH
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN THERE FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ONE BATCH EXITING THE WI ZONES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WINS OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT BATCH OF STORMS COMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONGER WAVE
TROF PASSES OVER THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE NW WI FA. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE INROADS TO THE FA AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE MORE EASTERN
AREAS. THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND
THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  57  76 /  20  30   0  10
INL  49  77  50  78 /  30  20   0  10
BRD  51  78  56  79 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  51  75  52  77 /  30  40  10  10
ASX  51  73  50  75 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP





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