Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 062315
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW OR
VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO NW AND INCREASE ON SAT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AND NO PRECIP
OR OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE


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