Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142229
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
329 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance aloft will help kick off a few showers, or even a
thunderstorm, tonight across the southern border area. This would
include mostly Hudspeth and Hidalgo Counties. A cool front will
also drop down, lowering today`s warm temperatures back down below
normal on Friday. Next Pacific trough dives down to just south of
Arizona Saturday night. This will spread some clouds to the area
and a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday. The remainder
of the new work week looks to remain dry, with temperatures around
or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere going through a highly amplified period. Highly
amplified upper ridge over the western U.S. will persist tonight
but then begin breaking down for several days, only to return
toward the end of next week. In the short term, upper trough
spilling down the front side of the ridge, phasing in with
existing trough over northern Mexico. Some showers, and even a
thunderstorm or two, have broken out in this area this afternoon.
Will keep Hidalgo and Hudspeth Counties in low POPs tonight. Will
have to watch remainder of southern zones in case showers move
into that area. Cool front also dropping down from the north and
east. Should drop temps about 7-10 degrees for Friday.

Next system is Pacific trough which reaches the Pacific coast
Friday and drops down to our area Saturday night. A few showers
could develop in the far west, with the chanced spreading east on
Sunday. Snow levels start out relatively high, but by late Sunday
night, the levels could fall to around 4500 ft, especially out
west. Grids reflect with with some light mixed precip over the
western lowlands. At any rate, expect precip to be light, so
lowland snow amounts would be quite light. Trough moves east of
the area Monday morning, allowing the skies to clear.

Relatively dry west flow Tuesday through Thursday as upper ridge
just off the west coast begins strong meridional growth.
Temperatures should warm back up to just above normal. Last
challenge is the potential for a winter storm in the period from
the 23rd to the 25th. Right now GFS and ECMWF significantly
different, with GFS bringing trough down and closing off low just
south of Arizona next Friday, while ECMWF showing slower
development, bringing trough and closed low down to four corners
region Saturday night. GFS solution would suggest snow and cold on
the 23rd and 24th, while ECMWF suggests snow and cold holding off
til Christmas. Hopefully the models can become closer with the
Christmas solution over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z...
Through 12Z expect FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 with isolated to
widely scattered -SHRA mainly in Hudspeth county. Winds will start
out at 10-20G30KTS out of the north to east with strongest winds
along western mtn slopes.  After 12Z skies should become SKC with
winds becoming more S to SE and decreasing to AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern setting up across the country for the next
week plus.  Several upper lows will be affecting the area during
this time with the first tonight.  There will be a back door cold
front moving through through midnight which will help to drop
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees for Friday. East to northeast
winds will pick up behind the front for tonight but should decrease
to less than 15 mph by morning.  A few rain showers are possible
over west Texas.  Temperatures will remain near to slightly below
normal going into the weekend with another bringing precipitation
chances across region on Sunday with lowland rain and mountain snow.
Temperatures will start to warm up to near normal by the middle of
next week with dry conditions returning for a few days.  Relative
humidities should remain above 20 percent and winds will
occasionally get breezy, especially Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 33  53  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           32  51  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              28  51  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              28  49  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              20  41  17  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   28  51  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             25  51  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  27  53  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               26  55  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      34  52  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               24  51  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  54  29  59 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              30  49  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  28  53  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            29  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          30  51  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           19  51  18  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   24  52  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                30  53  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               29  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 21  47  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               21  46  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                21  44  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 18  50  18  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               23  51  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               21  50  18  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            15  52  17  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  22  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   14  55  15  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              20  53  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 26  52  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  26  55  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 23  54  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          27  53  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale              30  54  24  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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