Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 262050
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
250 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see breezy to windy conditions most afternoons this week.
A pair of upper level storm systems will bring very strong winds
to the lowlands and precipitation to most areas on Tuesday and
Wednesday and again on Saturday. Temperatures this week will run
at or above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The train of upper level storm systems continues. Last night a
weak upper level trough moved across southern Colorado and that
gave the area some brief gusty winds during the overnight hours.
That system has continued to our east. Despite that system moving
off to our east we will continue to see breezy winds this
afternoon. Then on Monday the next in a series of upper level
troughs will begin to make its influence felt on us. The system
will still be well west of us, but it will continue our breezy to
windy afternoon conditions. Then on Tuesday the upper low will
strengthen and close off over the Four Corners region and then
kind of slow down. This will give us very windy conditions on
Tuesday afternoon. A wind advisory (25 to 35 mph) may be needed
for parts of the area on Tuesday. In addition to the winds, the
system will bring a chance for precipitation, mainly to area
mountains. And with the slow movement of the system it may get
just cool enough to give us an inch or two of snow above 8,000
feet in area mountains.

Finally by late on Wednesday that upper level trough will be to
our east, but that does not mean we will see an end to the winds,
as we will be breezy to windy on both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Then on Friday another upper level trough will drop
down through the Four Corners region to give us another very windy
day on Friday. Right now wind speeds for that day may need an
advisory (25 to 35 mph) and maybe a high wind warning (35 to 45
mph) in a few spots. Like Tuesday`s system this late week trough
will bring a chance of precipitation to the area. Both the ECMWF
and GFS have precipitation chances in both the lowlands and
mountains, but considering the time of year and that this second
trough will be taking a more inland track I`m not very excited
about our precipitation chances.

Looking at our temperatures, they will be on a bit of a roller
coaster this week. We will warm up out ahead of each trough and
then drop a few degrees below normal behind each trough. Monday we
will see highs around 5 to 7 degrees above normal, but then as the
first trough moves across we will see highs near normal (or a
degree or two below normal) on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then it is
back above normal for Thursday and Friday before we cool behind
the second trough with temperatures back to normal for next
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through 12Z, then clouds will start to increase with
areas west and north becoming SCT-BKN100-120 and areas further E FEW-
SCT120-150 SCT-BKN250. Winds generally W to NW AOB 12KTS tonight but
becoming W to SW after 15Z and increasing to 10-20G30KTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active weather pattern for the upcoming week with breezy to windy
conditions almost daily.  There will likely be some critical/near
critical fire weather days as moisture moves in and out with each
passing system.  Tuesday and Friday look like the windiest days but
also the days when moisture will be entering the region.  Right now
think best chance for critical conditions Tuesday are the lowlands
east of the Rio Grande but humidity levels may remain a bit too high
so will hold off on watch for now. Light precipitation Tuesday and
Fri/Sat will mainly be confined to area mountains. Temperatures will
remain within about 5 degrees of above or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 51  81  57  73 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           49  79  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  75  49  68 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              45  75  52  71 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft              30  51  34  47 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences   46  75  51  66 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             41  66  43  55 /   0   0   0  50
Deming                  42  75  48  66 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               39  74  43  63 /   0   0   0  30
West El Paso Metro      52  78  58  71 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               40  80  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            48  83  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              49  73  55  68 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  46  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  78  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          51  75  57  69 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           39  75  43  68 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                46  78  52  70 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               48  77  55  71 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 35  66  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               34  64  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                32  61  37  57 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 29  67  32  57 /   0   0  10  50
Hillsboro               40  72  43  63 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport               43  73  46  66 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            25  67  28  56 /   0   0  10  60
Hurley                  37  69  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                   32  73  36  63 /   0   0  10  60
Mule Creek              37  68  40  59 /   0   0  10  60
Faywood                 43  70  47  60 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  41  76  44  65 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 40  76  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          42  77  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              43  70  45  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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