Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290958
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
358 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The dry and warmer pattern which began on Wednesday will continue
today and into Friday as dry west flow aloft dominates the
pattern. High temperatures will be well above normal again today
and Friday with the drier air and plenty of sunshine. A weak cool
front will move into the Borderland from east to west later Friday
night. This will allow temperatures to moderate somewhat, though
still above normal. More importantly, it moves moisture back in,
giving much of the area a chance of thunderstorms over the
weekend. The beginning of next week will see some minor drying
out, although a risk of thunderstorms will continue through the
Fourth of July and mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The drying out of the CWA continues this morning as the far
southern portion of the mid latitude upper flow continues over the
area. PWs range from about .7 inches east to .3 inches west and
will decrease a bit more through Friday. Temperatures today and
Friday will be hot, though should fall just short of Heat
Advisory criteria. The dry line lurks just off to our east this
morning. Satellite IR and sfc obs show line extending from
Carlsbad to Roswell to Tucumcari and then northeast. NAM12
initializes this line well, and begins flushing it east after
sunrise today.

The pattern will begin changing later Friday as a back door front
moves in. Models still show some difference in timing; NAM12 shows
it reaching the Sac Mtns late Friday afternoon, while the GFS20
has it reaching those mountains midnight or slightly later. ECMWF
closer to GFS timing. At any rate though dewpoints will rise in
the east, it looks like it`s probably too late to kick off
convection. However will keep a low POP in for the Sacs just in
case things move in quicker.

Saturday and Sunday look to be the most active days of the
forecast period. Increased moisture moves over most of the area
for a chance of thunderstorms. The eastern half of the CWA looks
to be the favored place on Saturday, while Sunday will see a more
even distribution of POPs. Would not rule out slight risk of
severe storms in the east on Saturday with decent MUCAPEs and some
directional shear. Otherwise the rest of the area Saturday and
most of the area Sunday are only sporting modest MUCAPEs and LIs
and very little shear, so don`t expect severe storms.

Monday and beyond...kept low POPs in through Wednesday, although
some drying reappears Tue/Wed as upper high begins migrating over
New Mexico. Storms should be pretty hit or miss through this
period.

After Wednesday, both GFS/ECMWF show upper high moving to near the
Four Corners region, allowing north/northeast flow over the area,
and its associated short waves. At the surface, models show
increasing southeast flow opening up the Gulf of Mexico up the Rio
Grande Valley, though no dramatic increase in moisture is seen,
most likely due to more northeast oriented flow at mid/high
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12Z-30/12Z...
VFR conds thru the period with SKC to FEW250. Generally west
winds between 5 to 10 kts, except in the afternoon and early
evening where wind speed will reach up to 20kts and gust up to
25 kts.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry air remains in place through Friday as a west flow continues in
the region. Relative humidities remain in the single digits until a
front pushes through on early Saturday morning. This front
introduces a bit more moist air mass with RH values in the teens
and lower 20s, which brings back chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the weekend and next week. Although the mountains
may observe scattered thunderstorms during the weekend. Some of
the storms may present a chance for dry lightning with them as the
environment remains fairly dry west of the Rio Grande. Wind
conditions seem to be on the light side with occasional breezy
gusts in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                102  77 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           99  73 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             100  70 101  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              99  68 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              81  49  79  47 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   99  69 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             93  62  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                 100  68 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg              100  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     101  76 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              103  71 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           103  75 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              97  72  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 102  75 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           101  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ         100  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range          100  65 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  100  68 101  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               101  71 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande              100  72 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 89  53  88  51 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               89  53  88  50 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                88  54  88  51 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 94  57  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               97  63  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport              101  63 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            93  52  96  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  95  62  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   98  51 100  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              96  49  99  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 96  62  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                 100  68 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 99  67 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          98  68 101  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              95  65  98  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Crespo



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