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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220932
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BELOW THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTERWARD...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. STORMS WILL SPREAD TO
THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS...AIDED BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND DAY TIME HEATING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3 INCHES...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. GENERAL COVERAGE OF RAIN FALL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SPOTTY. THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
LOWER 100`S POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLAND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE AFFECTS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT AND
VERY SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. A
STEADY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT MAY LOSE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND DROP BACK BELOW 100 DEGREES FOR THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SPOTTY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL 100 DEGREE DAYS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH ALOFT
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK IMPULSES AND FRONTS ROTATING
AROUND THE HIGH MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1200Z - 23/1200Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. ISOLD - SCT TSRA AND SHRA MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS 18Z THRU 04Z. CLOUDS MOSTLY SCT100 BKN250 OVER
LOWLANDS WITH BKN040 OVER MTNS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST AT 7 TO 12 KTS THRU THE PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...A
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT TURNS MORE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...AFTER
TONIGHT LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WHEN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
UPPER HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE LIGHT KEEPING VENT
RATES GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                101  77 100  76  99 /  20  30   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  74  95  74  94 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              99  71  98  71  97 /  20  30   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO             100  72  99  72  98 /  20  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              80  53  78  51  78 /  50  40  20   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   98  70  97  70  96 /  20  40  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             94  64  94  63  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
DEMING                  99  71  98  71  97 /  20  30   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  70  96 /  10  20  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  76 100  75  99 /  20  30   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  68  99  67  98 /  20  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           103  74 102  73 101 /  20  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  70  93  69  91 /  20  30   0   0   0
FABENS                 102  74 101  73 100 /  20  30   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           100  72  99  72  98 /  20  30   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          98  73  97  73  96 /  20  30   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           98  67  97  67  96 /  20  30   0   0   0
HATCH                  102  69  98  69 100 /  20  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                99  71  96  71  97 /  20  30   0   0   0
OROGRANDE              101  71 100  71  99 /  20  30   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  62  84  61  83 /  40  40  20   0  10
MESCALERO               87  59  86  58  85 /  50  40  20   0  10
TIMBERON                85  58  84  57  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
WINSTON                 90  64  90  63  88 /  30  40  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               94  71  94  70  92 /  20  40  20   0  10
SPACEPORT               98  70  97  70  96 /  20  40   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            92  59  92  58  90 /  40  40  20  10  20
HURLEY                  95  64  95  63  93 /  20  40  20   0  10
CLIFF                   99  62  98  63  97 /  30  30  20  10  10
MULE CREEK              96  60  96  60  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
FAYWOOD                 94  68  94  67  92 /  20  40  20   0  10
ANIMAS                  98  72  97  73  96 /  10  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 97  69  97  69  95 /  20  30  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          99  72  98  72  97 /  20  30  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              93  66  93  65  91 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





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