Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOKS LIKE MARCH WILL LEAVING LIKE A LAMB...THE SAME WAY IT ENTERED.
A SMALL LOW ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY STARTED SPREADING CLOUDS TO THE
BORDERLAND AND WILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...COOLING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CONTINUES TO PUMP HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...MOSTLY RESULTING IN JUST HIGH CLOUDS. WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH IN OVER NIGHT. BOTH
NAM/GFS PUSH 30-40 DEG DEWPOINTS IN ON MONDAY TO FINALLY MOISTEN THE
AIRMASS UP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI`S AND VERY
MODEST CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE AROUND TUESDAY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT
MAINLY DEMING EAST.

FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT AFTER LOW DEPARTS AREA TUESDAY. REST OF
WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS STILL SHOWING STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
IN SATURDAY MORNING. GFS EVEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE PCPN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON VCNTY OF COLD FRONT NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. ECMWF SHOWS
WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN 24 HOURS EARLIER ON FRIDAY WITH LESS
STRENGTH. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND RECENT GFS PERFORMANCE OF
LONGER RANGE BACK DOOR FRONTS...IGNORED THE FRONT MOSTLY FOR DAY
6...THOUGH DID ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SACS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM UPSLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-01/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM TO RE-STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND ALLOW A SERIES OF
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE TODAY OVER.  ISOLATED HIGH BASED
MOUNTAIN -TSRA/CIGS 080-100/WND VRB25G40KT ARE PSBLE MON AFTN AS A
RESULT.  LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS THROUGH 05Z
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING 070-090/05-10KTS MAINLY OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH 15Z.  FEW-SCT300-330 EXPECTED OUTSIDE STORMS.
OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT
AT TIMES 17Z-24Z MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
EVENING..BRING A SHIFT TO LIGHT ENE-E WINDS UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUB TROPICAL JET STREAM TO
RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE FLOW WILL
OPEN US UP TO A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERATING HIGH BASED CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE
LOWLANDS.  DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE CONVECTION.

THREAT SHIFTS TO DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS THE PACIFIC JET STREAM DROPS SOUTHWARD
AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LATITUDE TROUGH DUE IN FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AT THAT TIME.

HIGHS WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.  MIN RH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 10% SOUTH
CENTRAL/SW DESERTS...TO MIDDLE-UPPER 20S FOR THE SACS AND EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY.  VALUES SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 5-8 PERCENT WED-FRI ALL
AREAS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE
THURSDAY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MIXING
HEIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12000-17000 FT.  LOOK FOR GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES MONDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR OVER TULAROSA
BASIN AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATES ARE
FORECAST ALL AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  84  57  81  55 /   0   0  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  52  75  48 /   0   0  10  30   0
LAS CRUCES              56  83  50  79  48 /   0   0  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  82  48  79  48 /   0   0  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  60  41  58  38 /   0  20  20  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  80  50  79  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  75  48  72  45 /   0  10  10   0   0
DEMING                  51  84  49  80  47 /   0   0  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               48  83  47  79  44 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  84  57  79  55 /   0   0  10  20   0
DELL CITY               50  80  50  81  47 /   0   0  10  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  82  54  80  51 /   0   0  10  30   0
LOMA LINDA              54  80  54  74  52 /   0   0  10  20   0
FABENS                  57  83  55  80  51 /   0   0  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            53  84  53  80  51 /   0   0  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  83  54  78  53 /   0   0  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  83  46  79  44 /   0   0  10  10   0
HATCH                   50  83  49  80  47 /   0   0  10  10   0
COLUMBUS                53  84  53  79  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
OROGRANDE               53  83  52  78  51 /   0   0  10  10   0
MAYHILL                 42  69  46  66  45 /   0  10  20  10   0
MESCALERO               40  69  42  67  41 /   0  10  10  10   0
TIMBERON                42  70  44  66  43 /   0  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 45  72  42  73  42 /   0  10  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  79  49  76  46 /   0  10  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               47  82  46  80  44 /   0   0  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  72  43  71  41 /   0  10  10   0   0
HURLEY                  50  78  48  74  46 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLIFF                   37  79  43  78  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              34  78  40  78  35 /   0  10  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  78  49  76  46 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  51  82  51  78  47 /   0  10  10   0   0
HACHITA                 48  84  50  80  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  82  48  78  45 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  80  48  76  45 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/TRIPOLI








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