Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 062026
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
226 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE BORDERLAND THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND CAUSE FLOODING. NEXT
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER WITH
SEASONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK ZONAL FLOW NOW EXTENDS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THUS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPRESSED MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE HEATING AND OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA WITH FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OF PERHAPS GREATER
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR JULY CLOSED LOW WHICH
WILLMOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.5 BY THURSDAY.

THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND
FLASH FLOODING TO BE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER PROXIMITY
OF UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
6 KM SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVING SPEEDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT BY LATE
THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED AS CAPES WILL BE
AROUND 600 TO 1200 J/KG.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AFTER FRIDAY WITH WARMER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BRINGING WARM
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/00Z-08/00Z. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MSTR IN PLACE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE EAST AROUND 09Z-12Z SHIFTING WSW WINDS TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION.
WINDS 00Z-09Z GNLY W TO NW 10G15020KT...BECOMING NE 10KTS AFT 09Z
SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SKY/WX GNLY SCT-BKN 060-080 SCT-BKN
100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. LCL VRB30G40KT 3SM TSRA BKN040CB BKN-OVC100.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS INTO MID
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY WILL HELP FOCUS AND INCREASE
MOISTURE EVEN MORE AREA WIDE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THEN THE REGION SHOULD START TO DRY OUT DURING THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIN RH WILL RANGE IN THE 25%
TO 35% LOWLANDS AND 45% TO 55% ABOVE 7500 FT MONDAY INCREASING SOME
5% TO 10% OVERALL TUESDAY.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  94  73  95 /  20  30  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           69  89  67  91 /  30  30  40  40
LAS CRUCES              70  92  69  93 /  20  40  50  30
ALAMOGORDO              69  90  67  91 /  30  30  50  30
CLOUDCROFT              54  67  53  70 /  50  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  89  67  93 /  40  40  50  40
SILVER CITY             64  84  62  84 /  30  30  40  30
DEMING                  70  93  68  94 /  20  30  40  30
LORDSBURG               68  93  67  94 /  30  20  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  94  73  96 /  20  30  50  30
DELL CITY               68  90  67  93 /  40  20  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            73  94  71  95 /  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              68  87  68  90 /  20  30  50  40
FABENS                  72  94  71  96 /  20  30  50  30
SANTA TERESA            73  93  71  94 /  20  30  50  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  91  69  92 /  20  40  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           69  92  67  92 /  20  40  50  40
HATCH                   69  92  67  93 /  20  30  50  30
COLUMBUS                70  92  70  94 /  20  20  40  30
OROGRANDE               71  90  70  92 /  20  30  50  30
MAYHILL                 57  73  56  78 /  50  60  60  60
MESCALERO               57  76  56  81 /  50  60  60  50
TIMBERON                57  76  56  79 /  50  60  60  50
WINSTON                 60  82  59  85 /  40  60  50  40
HILLSBORO               65  89  63  91 /  30  50  50  50
SPACEPORT               68  91  66  93 /  30  40  50  40
LAKE ROBERTS            59  82  57  84 /  40  50  40  40
HURLEY                  64  86  63  87 /  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   65  91  63  91 /  30  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              63  89  62  91 /  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 66  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
ANIMAS                  67  94  67  94 /  30  20  20  30
HACHITA                 68  94  67  95 /  30  20  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  92  67  93 /  30  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              65  89  65  89 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN


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