Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300922
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEW AIR ARRIVES EARLY TODAY AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
EAST. THIS NEW AIR WILL CONTAIN PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND HELP
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE RESULTS
WILL BE A LOT MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE DAY MOVES TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WE START TO
DRY OUT...BUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE PICTURE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
MOISTURE WILL FLUSH OUT TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW FOR A BIG JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES. THESE WILL LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO FILTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A NEW AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ONE
THAT CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF TEXAS GULF MOISTURE. TO OUR WEST
ARE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF TEXAS FLOODED...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 65 TO 73 RANGE...AND A LOT OF STRONG NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES JUST TO OUR EAST THAT WILL HELP TO SHOVE
THE MOIST AIR OUR WAY. PROG CHARTS FROM MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE A
WESTWARD PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. ALL AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN BOTH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LI`S WILL RANGE FROM -1 WEST TO -5 EAST. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING CAPES WILL GROW TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. I DON`T SEE
MUCH IF ANY DYNAMIC HELP ALOFT...BUT HEATING...UPSLOPE...
OROGRAPHICS...AND POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALL WORK
TO INDUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS
ARE MODERATE AND THUS WE FIND OURSELVES IN A "MARGINAL" SVR THREAT
FROM SPC. THUS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ANOTHER THREAT TODAY/TONIGHT
WILL BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. PW`S
WILL BE NEAR AN INCH...STORM MOTION LOOKS SLOW...AND BACK-BUILDING
STORMS APPEARS LIKELY.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE SURGES WEST AGAIN THANKS TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS COULD KEEP STORMS IN PLAY OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUNDAY RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MEANS ANY MOISTURE THAT REMAINS
OVER THE REGION WILL BE TRAPPED HERE AND SHOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
ANOTHER AFTN/EVE OF STORMS...WHICH AGAIN COULD LAST INTO THE NIGHT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MONDAY...WE PRESS THE REWIND BUTTON AND PLAY WITH
THE SAME INGREDIENTS AS SUNDAY. THUS MORE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WITH DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FOCUS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS WESTERLIES BEGIN TO DRY THE
WESTERN ZONES.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WE COME UNDER A SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WEST/SW FLOW PATTERN. THUS THE MOISTURE GET SCRUBBED AND
SHOVED EAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING FAR EAST ZONES. WEDNESDAY COMPLETES THE DRYING WITH CONTINUE
AND INCREASED WESTERLIES THANK TO LEE SFC TROUGHING TO OUR EAST IN
RESPONSE TO A WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HEAT
WILL BE THE STORY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF
THE YEAR WITH LOWLAND TEMPS NEARING 100 DEGREES.

THE DRYING IS SHORT-LIVED AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE AN INGEST OF MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC/BAJA REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND FILLING IN FRIDAY. THUS PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE MAKING A RETURN FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...SNEAKING INTO SIERRA COUNTY BY 12Z...A DMN-ELP LINE
BY 15Z...AND REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND 18Z.
INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL
LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION WITH ISO TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. A
FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR AND POSSIBLE ISOLD IFR NEAR
STORMS WITH CIGS BLO 4000FT AND LOCAL VSBY BLO 1 MI IN RA+. WINDS
GENERALLY 90-120 5-15KTS...VRBL 25 TO 35 KTS WITH TSTM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY... REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND NOON.
EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH A HEALTHY BOOST IN HUMIDITY. THIS ADDED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN SOME AREAS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORED. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DESPITE A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  90  68  95 /  20  40  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  57  85  61  91 /  40  30   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              89  59  89  62  94 /  20  40  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  88  61  93 /  30  40  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  41  66  48  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   87  59  88  63  91 /  20  40  20  20  10
SILVER CITY             85  52  80  57  86 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEMING                  92  57  91  61  95 /   0  40  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               94  59  91  62  95 /   0  20  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      89  64  91  68  95 /  20  40  10   0   0
DELL CITY               83  56  85  60  92 /  40  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            86  61  90  64  96 /  40  40   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              82  55  81  62  88 /  30  40   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  60  91  63  96 /  20  40   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            90  60  90  64  95 /  20  40  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          88  61  88  65  93 /  20  40  10  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           88  56  89  59  92 /  20  40  10  10   0
HATCH                   90  58  90  61  94 /  20  40  10  10   0
COLUMBUS                91  62  90  65  95 /   0  30   0  10   0
OROGRANDE               86  60  87  65  93 /  20  30  10  10   0
MAYHILL                 69  46  72  52  78 /  50  40  30  20  40
MESCALERO               72  43  74  51  79 /  50  50  30  20  30
TIMBERON                72  45  72  51  79 /  40  40  30  20  30
WINSTON                 81  47  78  54  83 /  30  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               89  52  86  58  91 /  20  40  20  20  10
SPACEPORT               89  54  90  59  93 /  20  40  10  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            85  48  80  53  85 /  30  30  40  30  20
HURLEY                  87  51  82  56  88 /  10  20  20  20  10
CLIFF                   89  45  89  57  94 /  10  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              90  43  86  52  92 /   0   0  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 86  53  82  59  89 /  10  30  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  95  59  92  63  96 /   0  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 94  57  92  62  96 /   0  20  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  56  92  61  95 /   0  20  20  10   0
CLOVERDALE              92  54  87  60  91 /   0  10  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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