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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311204 AAA
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THIS WEATHER WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO END AND SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING SOMEWHAT. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MUCH OF NEXT WEEK MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
CHOSE AT LAST MINUTE TO DOWNGRADE WINTER WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER TWO
SACRAMENTO ZONES TO ADVISORIES. NEW STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY
WILL REFLECT THIS.

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM EVENT HAS BEEN LESS THAN OVERWHELMING SO FAR...MOSTLY
DUE TO TRICKY SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA.
MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND IS ABOUT THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVE...UNSTABLE LOOKING BAND ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW AND NOW OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE AREA
COULD SEE A BREAK FROM MOST PRECIP UNTIL THIS MORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ROTATES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOWING HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN...FORECASTING THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE TRICKY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND HRRR
ARE STILL SHOWING A GOOD SNOW MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SACS
BUT AT ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FT. MESONET OBS SHOW MUCH OF THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS JUST BELOW FREEZING (AROUND 7000 FT) AND
MOST OF THE HIGH SACS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE WEST SLOPES ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE PROBABLY AROUND
7000 FT AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THERE BUT FLUCTUATE. WILL LEAVE
WARNING WORDING AT 8000 FT AND ABOVE. FOR THE GILA...LIMITED OBS
OVER THE BLACK RANGE SHOW TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE AREAS
FURTHER WEST BELOW 7000 FT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 7500-8000 FT IN THIS AREA. WILL LEAVE WARNING
ALONE FOR THIS ZONE TOO BUT LOOKING DOUBTFUL HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF ANY INHABITABLE AREAS. FOR THE LOWLANDS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL OF MAYBE ANOTHER QUARTER TO
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SIMILAR WITH ENDING THE EVENT. SECONDARY LOW
BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW AND DROPS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKLY LINKED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS RUNNING IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD END IN THE
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A NICE DIVERSION FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKENED PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A RATHER
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY FOR PERHAPS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
VERY FEW CLOUDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH BRIEF MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z-01/12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF
-RA WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM
OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOWS OVER NEVADA AND WEST OF THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOWLANDS AND SNOW FALL...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWS DROP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT THEN WARMUP BEGINS AND BY TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE NEW
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S WILL
RANGE FROM 65-75% TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 40S%
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  38  53  34  58 /  60  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  37  51  32  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  38  52  34  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  34  52  31  53 /  70  30  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  29  38  23  43 /  90  40  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  35  52  34  56 /  60  30  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  53  36  53  32  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  35  53  31  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  38  54  35  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               54  36  49  29  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  37  54  35  59 /  70  30  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  39  49  32  51 /  70  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  56  39  52  33  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  38  53  34  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  37  53  35  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  35  53  30  55 /  70  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   52  37  55  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  38  53  36  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  37  52  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  34  41  27  48 /  80  40  20   0   0
MESCALERO               42  33  45  25  45 /  90  40  20   0   0
TIMBERON                41  33  45  28  47 /  90  30  20   0   0
WINSTON                 43  34  48  30  51 /  80  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  36  49  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  36  55  32  56 /  70  30  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  34  49  30  51 /  90  40  20   0   0
HURLEY                  48  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   50  33  54  30  56 /  80  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  30  52  27  53 /  80  40  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  38  50  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  54  36  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
HACHITA                 53  34  55  32  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  33  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  38  53  33  57 /  90  40  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR 414-416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER











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