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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270957
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
357 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The winds return today and continue through much of this weekend.
A weak disturbance aloft will help increase the winds and blowing
dust this afternoon. A developing upper low over the northern
Rockies will drop down to New Mexico Friday night and Saturday,
continuing the strong winds. A few showers and thunderstorms are
also possible Friday and Saturday, mainly over the mountains.
Temperatures well above normal through Friday will make a
significant drop Saturday as a cold front from the east pushes in.
Highs Saturday could be 10 degrees below normal. This cold air
could also produce some light snow above 7000 ft in the Sacramento
Mountains Saturday night. The system moves out late Saturday
night, and Sunday will begin a gradual warm up again as skies
clear and winds turn to the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active period coming up as, first, weak disturbances move across
the area today, and then a strong upper low descends on the area
Friday and Saturday. For today several weak disturbances aloft
will sweep east through the area, brining with some bands of
higher clouds. Of more importance, these features will also allow
winds to increase. Wind and Blowing Dust advisories look fine at
this time. Models not showing much difference between near surface
and mid level winds, so don`t expect gusts to be significantly
higher than sustained winds.

Friday and Saturday...developing upper low over eastern Idaho will
slowly drop south over the next few days, reaching the Four
Corners region Friday night and then over northern New Mexico
Saturday morning. This will keep the winds likely into advisory
criteria again Friday. Chances of showers will develop over the
northern zones Friday afternoon, and continue through much of
Saturday as the far eastern zones also will see a slight chance of
showers. Modest cold advection aloft on Friday could be enough to
kick off a few thunderstorms. Pacific cool front moves through
Friday night with sharp drying behind it. Winds may briefly drop,
and blowing dust should dissipate. Stronger cold advection aloft
on Saturday will sustain instability, albeit in a much drier
environment. Upper low moving just east of the area will then
allow a back door cold front into the area. High temps could fall
15 degrees or more from Friday to Saturday. Continued gusty
northwest winds will make the day feel even cooler. Have to watch
the Sacs as the snow level could fall as low as 7000 ft Saturday
night around the time the precip ends. For now think an inch or so
is possible for high elevations such as Cloudcroft.

Sunday through Wednesday...upper low exits to the Texas Panhandle
late Saturday night, allowing the skies to clear for Sunday and a
gradual warm up to begin as surface winds turn back to the
southwest. Highs should be back above normal by Monday. Though
winds will be nowhere near as significant as the preceding days,
afternoons on Tuesday and Wednesday could become breezy to windy.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/12Z-28/12Z...
P6SM SCT150 SCT-BKN250 through period. After 17Z winds will be
increasing to 25-33 KTS with gusts to 40 kts. Widespread areas of
3-5SM BLDU across desert areas. Local vsbys blo 1SM, mainly west
and south of Deming.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...

Relative humidities today will be falling into the 10-15 percent
range as afternoon winds increase so Red Flag Warning looks
appropriate for all lowland areas and the Gila region. RH`s in the
Sacs look to be just high enough to remain out of critical
conditions. There will be an increase in moisture across region
Friday which should keep critical conditions to just an hour or
two in the lowlands. Similar conditions Saturday but temperatures
will be cooler and humidity levels even higher. Some showers or
even a thunderstorm are possible both Friday and Saturday, mainly
over the mountain zones. And some light snow is not out of the
question, mainly for zone. Temperatures rebound back for early
next week with daily breezy and dry conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  69  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           89  61  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              87  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              88  56  84  54 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft              64  41  59  34 /   0   0  30  40
Truth or Consequences   87  57  81  49 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City             76  49  71  44 /   0   0  10  20
Deming                  88  53  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               87  52  81  50 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      89  66  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               89  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            92  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  59  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  91  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            88  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          88  62  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           88  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   90  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                88  60  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               89  61  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 74  47  71  40 /   0   0  30  40
Mescalero               72  45  70  40 /   0   0  30  40
Timberon                70  44  69  41 /   0   0  30  40
Winston                 77  41  72  34 /   0   0  20  30
Hillsboro               82  48  76  45 /   0   0  10  20
Spaceport               89  44  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            76  36  74  36 /   0   0  30  30
Hurley                  78  46  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                   83  34  77  39 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek              79  34  74  40 /   0   0  20  20
Faywood                 80  49  75  45 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                  87  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 87  51  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          86  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              80  50  75  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ403>405-407-411>413-417.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>112.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Friday for
     NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for NMZ401>412-414>417.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for TXZ418>424.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM MDT Friday for
     TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

$$

17 Hefner



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