Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND AS DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MONSOON
SEASON MOISTURE IS LIKELY OVER AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN UPPER
PATTERN TO BRING THAT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH BOUNTIFUL
SUNSHINE THIS WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH JUST A BIT OF COOLING. A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MONSOON SEASON LINGERED ON THROUGH MOST OF SEPTEMBER BUT
ONCE IT LEFT...IT LEFT QUICKLY. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THAT SYSTEM IS
NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH FORMING
BEHIND IT. THE MONSOON MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE MODELS
SHOW NO SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO BRINGING THAT MOISTURE IN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WITH IT THE END OF OUR CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SOME TIME TO COME. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY CLOUDS...BUT
FEATURE WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ON THURSDAY AND THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...A WEAK CONTINENTAL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL FURTHER COOL FRIDAY BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. DESPITE "ALL"
THIS COOLING...FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

ONLY MODEL DEVIATION APPEARS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF BRINGS
THE REMAINS OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE TROPICAL STORM SIMON UP TO THE
CWA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS SIMON WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA AS IT BECOMES EX-TROPICAL...BUT BRINGS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT STILL WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU END OF FCST PD. A WK LEE TROF
IN ERN NMEX WILL ALIGN THE GRADIENT FROM W TO E. THRU THE PD
SKC-SCT 070. WINDS 17Z-02Z: 230-270 12G22KT. WINDS 02Z-17Z:
260-290/10KTS. OCNL LGT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS RETURNED FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY`S STRONG UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WHICH MAINLY WENT NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK.TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
RH WILL RUN FROM 18% TO 25% LOWLANDS AND 25% TO 35% ABOVE 7000 FT
TODAY AND ABOUT 5% LOWER OVERALL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  88  62  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  86  58  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  86  55  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  83  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  65  42  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  84  55  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  77  49  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  54  86  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               54  86  54  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  88  62  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               58  88  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  90  60  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  81  60  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  90  57  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  87  58  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  85  55  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  84  49  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   54  83  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  86  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               60  85  57  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 49  73  47  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               50  73  48  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                50  71  47  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  75  45  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               53  77  49  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               55  85  51  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  79  50  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  82  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              40  80  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  80  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  87  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  88  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  88  55  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  84  55  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN








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