Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191117
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant tropical moisture will move into the region today and
that will help fuel numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Monday. These storms will produce heavy rain that could
lead to flash flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect.
Temperatures today and Sunday will be several degrees below
average. Our rain chances will continue for much of next week with
temperatures a degree or two below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The moisture conveyor belt is beginning to move abundant tropical
moisture into the area. Upper level high pressure to our east and
upper level low pressure to our west will work together to bring
lots and lots of moisture into the area which will help fuel
numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening and into Sunday.
Precipitable water (PW) values are now near 1 inch and should
rise to 1.5 inches by early Sunday. These high PW`s will help
storms be very efficient at producing rainfall, so heavy rain is
likely over the next 36 to 48 hours. Rainfall totals of 0.50 to
1.50 will be wide spread with isolated 2 to 4 inch totals
possible through Monday morning. Flash flooding will be a
definite possibility so a flash flood watch is in affect through
Monday morning. Making things a little more interesting is that
all the models now indicate that a weak upper level low will move
up over the area early Sunday morning. This low will help keep our
heavy rain threat going. This enhanced surge of moisture looks to
continue through at least Monday.

Finally by late on Monday we will still have plenty of moisture in
place to fuel scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but
the threat of flash flooding will diminish somewhat. By the
middle part of next week, the upper trough to our west begins to
move toward the east and this will help bring another surge of
moisture and enhanced rain chances to the area. By the end of the
week we will see more typical rainfall chances with the storms
starting first in the mountains and then working into the lowlands
in the early evening.

We`ve been having above normal temperatures the last few days,
but that trend should be coming to an end. Highs today will be
near average, and on Sunday the highs will be running 5 to 10
degrees below average with all the clouds and rain. For most of
next week we will see temperatures run near or a few degrees below
average through at least Friday.

For those of you looking forward to the partial eclipse on
Monday, it is still not looking very good to get a look as the
moon passes in front of the sun. We are still looking pretty
cloudy around noontime (time of maximum coverage) on Monday. Best
chances for decent viewing in our area will be the further west
and north you go. Silver City may get a good view of it, but the
rest of us may have to watch it online.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z
Moisture, clouds and rain are poised to move into the area today.
We will see generally VFR conditions through the afternoon, but by
later this evening into the over night hours we will see some MVFR
and even some IFR visibilities and ceilings. Ceilings will start
off high as BKN150-250 but after 00Z ceiling will begin to lower
and the precipitation moves. By 03Z ceilings of BKN-OVC050-030
will be widespread across the area with lower ceilings likely in
and near storms. Winds will be out of the southeast this morning,
but become more variable later this afternoon and evening, but
should stay below 12 knots. Airport operations may be affected due
to the heavy rain potential over the next 24 hours to 48 hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lots of moisture, lots of clouds and lots of rain will be the name
of the game for the next 48 hours. Rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.50
with isolated higher amounts will be possible. The main threat
over the next couple of days will be heavy rain and flash
flooding. Our rain chances will continue through the end of the
week. Winds will stay below critical levels and min RH`s will stay
above 30% through the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  67  83  68 /  40  80  60  50
Sierra Blanca           87  64  84  66 /  30  60  60  40
Las Cruces              87  63  80  64 /  40  70  60  50
Alamogordo              88  65  80  64 /  30  80  70  50
Cloudcroft              67  48  62  50 /  50  80  60  80
Truth or Consequences   89  64  81  64 /  20  60  60  50
Silver City             83  57  76  58 /  30  60  60  60
Deming                  87  62  81  63 /  40  60  60  40
Lordsburg               88  63  82  63 /  30  60  60  60
West El Paso Metro      88  66  82  67 /  40  80  70  50
Dell City               90  68  86  68 /  30  60  60  50
Fort Hancock            91  68  86  70 /  40  70  60  40
Loma Linda              83  61  78  63 /  40  70  60  50
Fabens                  89  66  84  68 /  40  70  60  50
Santa Teresa            87  65  82  66 /  40  80  70  50
White Sands HQ          87  65  80  65 /  40  80  70  60
Jornada Range           88  64  80  63 /  30  70  60  60
Hatch                   89  64  82  64 /  30  60  60  60
Columbus                87  63  82  64 /  40  60  60  40
Orogrande               88  65  81  66 /  40  80  60  50
Mayhill                 76  55  70  55 /  50  70  60  70
Mescalero               77  55  69  54 /  50  80  70  70
Timberon                75  54  69  54 /  50  70  60  70
Winston                 82  55  75  55 /  20  60  60  60
Hillsboro               86  59  78  59 /  30  60  60  60
Spaceport               88  63  81  63 /  20  60  60  60
Lake Roberts            82  53  74  53 /  30  60  60  60
Hurley                  84  57  76  58 /  40  60  60  60
Cliff                   89  58  82  58 /  30  60  60  60
Mule Creek              86  60  81  59 /  20  60  60  70
Faywood                 85  58  77  58 /  40  60  70  60
Animas                  87  62  81  62 /  40  60  60  40
Hachita                 86  61  81  62 /  40  60  60  50
Antelope Wells          85  60  80  62 /  40  60  60  50
Cloverdale              81  59  76  61 /  40  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night
     for NMZ401>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night
     for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice



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