Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242104
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
306 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY IS THE OPERATIVE WORD FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS VERY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW IN IT
IMPACT OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY BUT WILL CREATE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
ON SATURDAY THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE SHARPLY...ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. THAT LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING OUT EASTWARD
NEXT WEEKEND. FROM TUESDAY ON THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IF YOU LOVE WIND YOU ARE GOING TO REALLY LOVE THIS FORECAST. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAS
COOLED TEMPS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES TODAY. THE BIG WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OUT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. TROUGH WILL MOVE TO RIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
FRIDAY AND INCREASE MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CWA...AND HENCE THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
CLOSES OF INTO A LOW AND MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL REALLY CRANK UP THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND INDUCE STRONG LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG ISALLOBARIC ACTION OF THE LEE SIDE LOW AND STRONG LAPSE
RATE/DEEP MIXING WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY. NAM...WHICH IS USUALLY THE MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL...SHOWS
H85 WINDS OF 40 MPH AND H70 WINDS OF 55-60 MPH (LIKELY GUST VALUES).
GFS ABOUT 5 MPH HIGHER ON ALL WINDS. BLOWING DUST COULD BECOME QUITE
EXTENSIVE TOO BUT WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DECIDE ON ADVISORY FOR THIS
BUT WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SATURDAY TO COVER THIS. UPPER LOW
HAS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN IT (PW`S APPROACH .4
INCHES) BUT STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DECENT JET ALONG WITH STRONG PVA
WILL GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

UPPER TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO END
THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF THE ENTIRE EVENT...BUT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE QUITE STRONG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW WITH
JET OF 140+ KTS (70 KTS OVER NEW MEXICO)IS THE CULPRIT. WINDS COULD
STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY SUNDAY AND JUST A BIT LESS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND STARTS AN INTERESTING PERIOD LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES US ON TUESDAY IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MIDWEST AS FIRST A REX BLOCK PATTERN SETS
UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MORPHS MORE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME LOW AND MOISTURE TOO
FAR EAST TO IMPACT THE AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTH. MAIN
AFFECT OF THE PATTERN WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z-26/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-12Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM WIND LESS THAN 15 KTS. AFTR 12Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST
TO SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PICK UP A BIT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WEST OF THE DIVIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HIGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH WINDS...ALONG WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. STILL BREEZY MONDAY BUT
WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THEN LIGHTER
WINDS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GILA
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO RAIN IN SIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  88  64  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  86  56  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              48  85  54  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  85  56  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  61  43  57  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  84  57  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  78  49  71  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  45  85  52  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               47  85  53  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  88  63  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               48  87  54  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  93  62  90  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  80  56  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  89  60  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  86  55  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  85  62  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           39  85  44  81  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  85  47  81  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                47  85  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               49  86  55  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  72  45  69  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               36  72  43  67  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                37  69  44  66  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 41  78  45  67  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               49  80  53  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               44  82  53  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  77  44  70  37 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  43  80  50  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   32  81  34  74  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              29  78  33  70  33 /   0   0   0  10  10
FAYWOOD                 44  79  50  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  49  86  53  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  85  52  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          50  86  52  81  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  81  50  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK








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