Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212108
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
308 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will be on a bit of a temperature roller coaster over the next
7 days. Sunday will be a little cooler with temperatures running
near average. On Monday we will see temperatures a few degrees
back above normal before more cool air arrives and drops us below
average for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we will pop back
above average for our highs before another shot of cool air drops
us back below normal for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yes, I put the "S" word in the forecast, but no need to get
excited. You`ll have to read on for the details. We currently sit
at the bottom of an eastward moving trough. About the only effect
to our weather from the trough will be some breezy afternoon
winds today and then a weak push of cooler air tonight which will
drop Sunday`s high temperatures to near seasonal averages. Hot on
the trail of the upper level trough will be an upper level ridge
which will build into the southwest U.S. This ridge will keep our
skies clear and jump our highs on Monday around 5 degrees above
average. But then late on Monday night a large trough in the
Midwest will push a cold front west, across the area. This front
will be dry, but it will drop Tuesday and Wednesday`s highs a few
degrees below average. By Thursday the upper level ridge to our
west will again try and strengthen, so our highs on Thursday will
bounce back a few degrees above average. But hey, it is fall
after all, and you can`t keep the cooler air bottled up forever.
So again late on Thursday another large Midwest trough will push
much colder air into the region for Friday and Saturday. Both the
extended models indicate that a short wave trough will be rotating
through the main trough late on Friday evening. The GFS keeps
most of the energy and precipitation just to our east, but the
ECMWF is a little further west with the system and brings some
precipitation to area mountains. By late Friday night with the
cooler air in place and a continued slight chance for
precipitation we could see some light snow in the Sacramento
mountains above 8,000 feet. There I said it, snow. My confidence
is not very high for this happening, but it is a sign that we have
left the bright sunshine of summer and are heading into the shade
of winter.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Gusty W to NW winds 15G25KTS
diminishing between 02Z and 04Z as a weak front begins to turn winds
from the North at 5-10KTS. Winds will remain light and shift to the
East after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty winds will diminish across the area this evening as a weak
front moves in from the north. While only minor cooling will occur,
much drier air is expected to filter in. Min RH values will be in
the lower teens for all but the higher terrain both Sunday and
Monday. At the same time vent rates will fall due to lower mixing
heights associated with more stable post frontal conditions.

A stronger cold front will arrive from the east Monday night with
stronger east winds. This will also result in cooler temps and a
small increase in Min RH values with readings generally above 20
percent across the region. However precipitation will still be
absent. There is a slight chance for wetting precip by Friday with
the arrival of a stronger disturbance and yet another front passing
by.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 49  77  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           48  72  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  73  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              44  71  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   43  72  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             41  72  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  42  75  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  75  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      51  74  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               41  74  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            50  78  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              45  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  46  78  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            48  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          46  71  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           39  71  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   45  74  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                45  75  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               45  73  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  64  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               38  67  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                37  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 28  70  32  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  72  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               40  73  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            27  75  30  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  73  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   30  78  34  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              29  75  31  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 40  73  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  42  77  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 40  76  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          42  78  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              42  76  43  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Laney



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