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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND VERY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE OCCASIONALLY JUMPED TO 20 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AZ IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. SURFACE HUMIDITIES ARE BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS
NEARLY ALL THE AREA THIS MORNING.

WE HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AND EXPECT
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO
40 MPH TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE START TIME WAS MOVED
UP TO 10 AM MST.

ON THURSDAY...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW MPH SLOWER THAN TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
SEE PRODUCT RFWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

ASIDE FROM SMOKE...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
TODAYS PROGS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A MOISTURE SEEP INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE
REMOVED. WE DO EXPECT PERIODIC CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WITH AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PROGS HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. THUS WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT IS MORE DRY AND
STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF A WILDFIRE WEST OF KPRC WHERE LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT AFTER
15Z...DECREASING AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TODAY AND THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6 ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST FOR
AZZ104>108-111>117-139-140.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ104>107-111>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF