Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 180204
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
904 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A QUIET WEEKEND AND START TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW WITH A MUCH COLDER PATTERN LOOKING TO SET UP
FOR THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FCST TO LOWER THE CHCS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT DOWN TO MAINLY FLURRIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED SE OF THE AREA...AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN BUILDING IN. THE TREND FOR THE NIGHT IS FOR
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MODIFYING TEMPS ALOFT. DGZ IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING UNSATURATED...SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE SPARSE. WE DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BECOME
AN ISSUE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 2K FT AND ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE NE CWA. A
SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THIS REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH SOME ROADS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SLICK DURING ANY
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. FLURRIES REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR A
QUIET END TO THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE AND MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS ON.  THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE THAT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD ONLY
GIVE US SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.  A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE WARM
ADVECTION AND IT STILL APPEARS ANY MIXED PCPN ON MONDAY GRADUALLY
TURNS TO MOSTLY RAIN WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR
WEST.  THIS RAISES PCPN TYPE ISSUES AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AS WE SLOWLY COOL.  HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE
PERIODS...HOWEVER I/M LEANING TOWARD MORE RAIN.  THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER LOW IS TO
OUR EAST...WHICH IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

DO NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL NOT AFFECT VISBYS MUCH. CEILINGS REMAIN AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET
AGL THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN HYDROLOGY EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND LIKELY INTO THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
MARINE...MACZKO






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