Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051844
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME
CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION DRIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND SOME DRYING WORKS INTO OUR AREA. WILL SEE QUITE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WILL ALLOW FFA TO CONTINUE THROUGH TIME OF BEST
INSTABILITY AS SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.  TOMORROW
LOOKS TO BE MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMER...WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE SO WILL STAY CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THINGS ARE STARTING TO TREND DRIER DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT WE COULD HAVE A FEW ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
DUE TO EARLIER HEATING/CLEARING ON MONDAY. HEATING COMBINED WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOKS
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS
WE BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE IN PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG.
SHEAR IS RATHER LACKING THOUGH SO IT APPEARS THAT ONLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE....A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE SETTING SUN TUESDAY EVENING
AND ALLOWS FOR CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE NAM HAS SHOWN WEAK RIDGING TRYING TO STALL OUT AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE FRONT DOWN FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA. THE NEW 12Z RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS CLOSER TO
WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE TREND
CONTINUES. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS
WELL AS RIDGING IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD UP THE WEAK FRONT TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE SAME PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY. THOUGH
EVEN IF THE FRONT STAYS TO OUR NORTH WE WILL STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW PULSE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. FRIDAY THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST AND
RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER INTO OUR AREA AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THESE DAYS AS WELL ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE GETTING BACK CLOSE TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  88  70  90 /  30  30  20  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  86  69  88 /  50  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  83  64  86 /  80  40  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.