Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 240636
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
236 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY.  AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
THE AREA.  DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND FORCING RATHER WEAK.  WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA DRY DURING THE EVENING BUT BRING IN LIKELY POPS TOWARDS
MORNING.  EXPECTED MAINLY A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN IT
DID 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE. WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST ZONES FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDED AS WELL.  DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL
CARRY CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ALSO LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT IN THAT TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             78  59  74  48 /   0  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  77  57  73  48 /   0  70  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  57  73  47 /   0  70  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  72  43 /   0  70  70  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.