Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 270717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL BE REALIZED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
VIEWING AREA. ACTUALLY TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE FEATURE THAT MODELS BRING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD AND MAINLY SECOND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAX/MIN GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A MOIST S-SW
FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WV/KY ON SUNDAY MAY ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE TN
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY AS THE
DAY FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR WITH THE ECMWF
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT BACK TO
THE NORTH. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE QPF SPREAD AS WELL. DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  65  86  67 /  40  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  66  84  65 /  20  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.