Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 020714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL REMAIN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 800MB CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BESIDES THE NORTHEAST...
OROGRAPHIC FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

BESIDES THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

RIDGING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...RAIN CHANCES LOOK RATHER
LIMITED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS STATES UPPER RIDGE. STAYED
FAIRLY TRUE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND MESHED WITH NWS NEIGHBORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY EVENING
ALONG THE TN-NC LINE...THEN DRY FOR REST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK
UPSLOPE FORCING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER WRN NC...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS E-NE...BUT THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR
EAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CARRIED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP. ALSO...THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE IN A PRIME POSITION ON
SATURDAY TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT HAS SHIFTED SE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. THUS...I STRAYED A BIT FROM THE
SUPERBLEND POPS ON SUNDAY (WHICH WERE 45 TO 60 PERCENT)...OPTING TO
GO SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY POPS FOR NOW.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. NOT SURE HOW MUCH FORCING DEVELOPS...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES BECOME DIFFLUENT BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GFS
MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD FOR EARLY PERIODS THEN FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND
FOR TEMPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  93  70 /  10   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  69  90  68 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  69  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  64  89  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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