Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 051028
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

...HOTTER TODAY WITH ONLY SPARSE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...

CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS VIRTUALLY NIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND TODAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH.  FIRST IS THE PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH OCCURRED BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING.  00Z RUNS DID NOT
ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DETAIL.  OF THEM...NAM12 SEEMED TO DO
THE BEST...AND HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON AS WELL.  NAM...HRRR
AND RAP13 ALL MIX OUT THIS SHALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF 50+ DEW POINTS FARTHER TO THE EAST
NEAR THE KS BORDER.

MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM AS TROF ACROSS CA RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER CO AHEAD OF IT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MID AND HIGH BASED.  SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION SPARSE AND HIGH BASED...THUS MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AT BEST...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
IF IT CAN GET GOING AT ALL.  WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT...BUT STILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER CHALLENGE AREA WILL BE ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS SE CO.  SOME OF
THE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY THE RATON RIDGE REGION.
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...AS MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MIX
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE NAM WHICH HOLDS ON TO SOME LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
BACA COUNTY.  HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM12.  HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SILENT POPS OUT ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS FOR NOW.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...A LATER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP POPS
UP A TAD.  IF CAPES CAN STAY HIGH ENOUGH...AND SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM...THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM IN THIS AREA...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 35 KTS.  BUT WE SEEM TO BE LACKING
MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE WAY OF A DISTURBANCE...AND MODELS TEND TO
OVERDO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CASES LIKE THESE...SO WILL STICK WITH
SILENT POPS FOR NOW.  THIS AGREES WELL WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR
NOW...WHICH DOESN`T HAVE THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT THIS POINT EITHER.

TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE MORE MILD FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARDS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

...MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
PROVIDES FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. MODELS PUTTING OUT ALMOST NO
RAINFALL...SO THE FORECAST WITH SILENT POPS TO LOW GRADE ISOLATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20C...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 100
DEGREES F IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND 90S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REALIZED.

FRIDAY...TRANSITION BEGINS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN US
NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY...WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER DAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TICK DOWN A LITTLE
MORE.

SUNDAY...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IN
PLAY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY...WITH SPARSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED AND THEREFORE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND OVERNIGHT.  KALS WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15
KTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT



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