Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190501
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE SW MTS. ALSO PULLED
BACK POPS FROM THE RATON MESA LATER TONIGHT...AS MOST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN IN NM. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND CO
TODAY...WHILE THE REMNANT OF ODILE WAS GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS OF 245 PM...A FEW CU HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REPORTED YET.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON
KEEPING ODILE AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A HINT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CREEPING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH
TOMORROW. THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE TAP MEANS THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST BET...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN TOMORROW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO READINGS RECORDED TODAY. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F FOR THE PLAINS...WITH 70S OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW
SETS UP OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY.

NEXT TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM BEING FAIRLY
ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS SO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...ROSE


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