Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251427
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front sweeps east this morning and early afternoon. High
pressure brings dry weather this afternoon through Tuesday. Next
low pressure system Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Sunday...

NBM, HRRR and NAMNest able to resolve thin line of showers with
cold front crossing through early this afternoon. Allowed
slight chance for midday and early afternoon thunder with this.
A bias corrected short term consensus was used to fine tune
temperatures and dew points today into tonight.

The big news is we more a less dodged a big bullet with the
rain, with flooding only in a few areas and gauged streams, and
the crest on the Ohio only going into minor flooding at most
gauges, pending the late morning update.

The flood watch was shortened by 3 hours, to a 1 PM expiration.

As of 145 AM Sunday...

Latest radar mosaic shows a large area of moderate to occasionally
heavy showers was currently pushing east into the region. These
showers were associated with a cold front which was approaching
from the west.

The cold front and associated precipitation should push across
the region this morning with the precipitation coming to an end
as the front pushes east.

Models continue to generally show the highest rainfall amounts
over southeastern Ohio. Will continue the flood watch as the
ground is saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high
across the watch area.

High pressure will build in tonight with dry weather and light
northwest winds.

Blend of model guidance is very close for previous forecast for
highs today and lows tonight.  So only some minor tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

Some light rain showers my skirt our SW VA counties Monday
morning as a wave develops along the front SE of the area.
Otherwise, early next week will provide a brief respite from the
very wet weather of late. Sunshine and continued mild weather
will be a welcome sign indeed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

The lull in the active weather will be short lived as another
wet system arrives for mid to late week. Rainfall amounts with
this system will have to be monitored for a renewed flooding
threat. Much colder air will move in behind this system with
mountain snow showers expected Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

A cold front will quickly cross the area through the late
morning hours. A few MVFR showers will be common along the
front with a wind shift to the west to southwest.

Conditions should then improve in the wake of the front. Expect
VFR conditions will spread east to the Ohio River by 15Z,
across much of the lowlands by 18Z and then the entire area by
20Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary. Some valley fog could develop tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in dense fog Tuesday morning, and in rain
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH



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