Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261258
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
858 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through today. Strong cold front may produce
severe storms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially north
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 855 AM Wednesday...

Sat imagery showing morning river fog burning off rapidly as
boundary layer mixes. Still seeing some areas of fog along the
Ohio river that are lagging behind. Will see an increase in
moisture in the atmospheric column over the next 24 hours with
high pressure moving to the east, while a front makes an
approach late tonight. No major updates planned.

As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Another nice day on tap for the region as High pressure remains
in control. We`ll start the day with patches of low clouds and
fog, then transition to mostly sunny skies with just some high
cirrus from storms over the northern plains. It will be warmer
and more humid than yesterday with both high temperatures and
dew point temperatures generally 3 to 6 degrees warmer than
Tuesday.

Cloud cover will start to increase tonight as high pressure
slides off the east coast and the next low pressure system
starts to approach from the west. As a result, expect
considerably less radiational cooling overnight tonight which
will cut down on the localized fog and low cloud development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Models are in general agreement with cold front pushing through
with embedded waves Thursday and exiting late Friday or early
Saturday. Southerly flow out ahead of this system will increase
moisture over the area. With increased moisture and instability
SPC and WPC has the entire area in a slight risk for severe
storms and excessive rain respectively. The only conundrum will
be timing differences between the models. This could enhance or
limit the severity and rain amounts. A Flash flood watch may be
necessary across our northern zones as FFG guidance values are
1.5 inches or less in 1 hour there. In any case, this system
bears watching.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Low pressure and wraparound rains exit on Saturday, with dry
and cool high pressure taking control over the region for the
rest of the weekend and into next week. Very pleasant
temperatures and low humidity will be the norm this weekend and
into early next week, with a gradual increase in temperatures
and humidity later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail over most parts, except along river
valleys where dense fog is expected. IFR/LIFR visibilities in
fog starting at most sites between now and 10Z with the
exception of BKW that should stay VFR. Any fog or low stratus
will lift and dissipate after sunrise. Once that happens, VFR
conditions should remain through the forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog this morning could vary by
an hour or two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions with thunderstorms likely Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/99
NEAR TERM...KMC/99
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ



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