Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 031859
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OH BY 00Z TUESDAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT. PLENTY
OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE PROVIDED ENOUGH HEATING TO GET STORMS GOING.
MODELS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH. ALTHOUGH SFC CAPE VALUES
FROM THE NAM SEEMS TO BE EXAGGERATED BY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...STILL
EXPECT ENOUGH BOUYANCY TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAVE
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
KY...SOUTHEAST OH AND THE WESTERN HALF OF WV THROUGH TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS...STARTING PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00Z...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS IT
LOOSEN ITS GRIP BY LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE LOOKS DESCENT WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS...STORMS COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

BLENDED THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FEATURES AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WENDESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WENDESDAY TIMEFRAME...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE CWA...INITIALLY...AND THEN SPREAD THEM
NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON
TIMING...TRIED TO TIME POPS WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS SOLUTION. BY
WENDESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURES A
CONCENUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US
OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING A TAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL WV BY
06Z...AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG STRONGER STORMS AS THEY COULD BECOME
SEVERE TONIGHT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE. THEREFORE...CODED VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR
NOW...IMPENDING AMENDMENTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER 09Z...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINA...THE MOUNTAINS
OF WEST VIRGINA...AND SOUTHWEST VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY.
DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS/26
AVIATION...ARJ



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