Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271913
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will move in with a strong cold front expected
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Bulk of rainfall has passed through the region to the north,
although rain will continue to hold on a little while longer
across northwestern locations such as Athens and Parkersburg. As
an upper disturbance approaches the region from the west, a
slight chance of showers will be possible across western
counties overnight, but the bulk of the rainfall will not arrive
until Tuesday. Have brought likely pops a bit farther to the
east compared to the inherited forecast, but eventually likely
pops may be needed across the entire forecast area. Warm
advection will continue to bring increasing warmth, with a few
locations possibly touching 70 degrees for a high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front
and potential water/severe weather threats heading into
Wednesday.

Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles,
and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10C. Decent available PW
with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing
the 60F mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at
the potential for a stout line of storms to roll through with a
low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive
rainfall. From the QPF standpoint, the system looks to be
progressive, and should move quickly thru the CWA. Storms would
likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would
certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves
moving south and east with height falls aloft. SPC day 3 has the
whole CWA in the slight risk, and will add this to the HWO.

In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in
rain/snow showers Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the
temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with
another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow.
Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong
temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal
range.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
Ceiling restrictions appear to have moved north of all local
terminals, although cannot rule out a brief restriction at KPKB
or KCKB. Appears that mid level clouds will continue through the
afternoon and overnight hours, with some breaks in clouds
possible. If any larger breaks in clouds occur, cannot rule out
some MVFR fog considering the light surface winds, but did not
have enough confidence in this scenario to include in the
forecast. Rain will move in from the west late tonight into
Tuesday morning, with KCKB and KHTS the most likely to receive
any showers.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/TGREEN
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TGREEN


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