Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
FXUS61 KRLX 261738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
138 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
High pressure holds through today. Strong cold front crosses
Thursday, and another possibly on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Wednesday...
No changes this morning.
As of 355 AM Wednesday...
Have canceled the frost and freeze headlines for a large portion
of the forecast area this morning as mid level clouds have kept
temperatures much warmer than previously forecast. However, skies
are clear across the Southern half of the CWA and we are
currently seeing observations in the upper 30s, so have decided to
leave out the frost advisory in these areas.
Today we will see an increase in temperatures. Highs should climb into
the 60s to maybe even low 70s across the Southern forecast area as
a frontal system approaching from the west turns the flow out
ahead of it from the south. Clouds will be on the increase through
as the cold front associated shortwave push into Ohio early
Thursday morning. Showers should enter the Ohio Valley by daybreak
tomorrow, but the bulk of the precip will be during the short term
period of the forecast.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system will cross
the southern Great Lakes region Thursday. An associated cold front
will pass over our area Thursday with showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Very little bouyancy, deep layered shear less
than 35 knots and precipitable water about 1.14 inches indicate a
weak environment for storms to form. Curious that models bring a
vorticity maxima ahead of the pcpn. So, kept likely PoPs and a
mention of afternoon thunder mainly over the eastern half of the
area through Thursday evening.
A similar clipper takes the same track passing northwest of the area
with another cold front by Sunday.
There is going to be a warming trend for the following few days
starting with lows in the 40s Thursday night and in the 50s Friday
night with showers lingering over the northeast mountains. Highs can
climb up into the upper 70s lowlands, ranging to 60 degrees highest
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...
The weather remains unsettled in the long term with a series of
upper level disturbance possible along the upper level jet. Went
with the blend of models for temperature, tweaking down PoPs when is
dry under high pressure.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...
VFR to begin with ceilings lowering through the TAF period. Winds
to veer to the southwest in the 10 to 15 kt range as rain moves
into the northern terminals. Some MVFR visibilities possible in
-SHRA when rain overspreads PKB, EKN and CKB. Rain chances are
possible at some point everywhere, but too low for prevailing
conditions at the southern terminals.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday evening.
IFR fog possible this weekend early mornings.