Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 150158
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE HEADING EAST MONDAY. MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUITE DAY WEATHER WISE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING BY TO THE
NORTH. DO HAVE SOME PESKY STRATUS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN REST OF CWA AND SE FLOW INTO
THE EASTERN SLOPES. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS WILL SCATTER OUT BY
THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE HAD ANOTHER
DAY TO DRY THE GROUND...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE WV LOWLANDS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT
MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE
EXTRA DAY OF DRYING. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SIDED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV ON TEMPS TONIGHT. LOCALLY RUN COOP
BASED MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST EVEN COLDER...GIVING VERY SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MID 30S. DID NOT GO QUITE
THAT LOW...BUT DO HAVE SOME PIXELS INTO THE UPPER 30S AROUND
GLADY. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW BY BLENDING IN
BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BIT OF MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTH OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THEN PUSH EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EAST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND EXITING THE FORECAST BY MID
TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG AT ALL SO
STICKING WITH MAX POPS ONLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND
EXPECTING LOW QPF WHERE THE SHOWERS DO HIT. SKIES TO CLEAR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A QUIET LIGHT WIND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG A LIKELY
OUTCOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS AT START OF
OF THIS TIME FRAME...WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE INTO SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE FIGURED FOR DAY
7/SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR SHUT FOR THE RETURN OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.

WITH HIGH CENTER JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WILL TRY TO HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...INCLUDED JUST THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS E OF ELKINS.
FIGURING NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HAZARDS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WITH A E AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MBS...DID KEEP MORE CLOUDS
OVER OUR EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...AND MENTIONED A 20 SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR FRIDAY IN THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE.

WILL ACCEPT WPC MEDIUM RANGE AND START INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE
DAY 7 FEATURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
02Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES.
THRU 06Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND
MVFR STRATUS STILL STUCK IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AT
BKW THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO SCATTER OUT BEFORE BECOMING
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BY 06Z...AFFECTING BKW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM BY 06Z TO AFFECT MOST OF THE MAJOR
TERMINALS.

RIVER AND VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 15Z...BUT MVFR TO LOW END VFR
STRATUS HANGS ON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THRU THE DAY
MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 09/15/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ/JR
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV










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