Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS DUE TO A
LACK OF OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISMS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
VORTICITY LOBE AND 850 MB JET SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY.
WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THESE FEATURES...BUT OTHERWISE KEEP A FAIRLY
GENERIC DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING
FROM E INDIANA INTO W OHIO SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NW OHIO...MOVING TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY BEING TAKEN OVER BY A
BIT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH ENTERING THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER WITH THE BEST
FORCING NOW REMAINING NORTH OF CWA...FEEL THIS RISK HAS DIMINISHED.
MODELS ALL INDICATE THE FRONT MANAGES TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ECMWF DOES SHOW A DECENT SLUG OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY...AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A
WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT. NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS KEEP ALL OF
THIS SE OF CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO
SOMETHING...AND HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK TO A CRW-CKB LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOIST AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY



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