Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 302317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY HUMID WEAK AHEAD...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF
ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CWA...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
STILL...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND
AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SANDWICHING THE CWA...THINK A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSHOWER COULD POP ANY WHERE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE NEAR TERM. FOR TODAY WENT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED DURING
THE BEST DIURNAL TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO
PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO CONFINE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA MONDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED POPUP FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND
TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON VARIETY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG
TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH
20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN VCNTY OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IF BREAKS
IN CLOUDS DEVELOP OR A SHOWER MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY
IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL


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