Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. OUR EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST AVAILABLE
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA... HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HAVE LESSENED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED POPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LOWER CEILINGS
INTO WIDESPREAD MVFR LEVELS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIP RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILING MAY PERIODICALLY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR LEVELS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED
BY THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NOW IN THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHTS...LIKELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE REGION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH...IN ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. WRAPAROUND ENERGY WILL EXTEND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING. QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THEREAFTER...WITH BOTH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND ALSO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THEMSELVES. THE ONLY HINT OF CONSISTENCY IS THAT THE GFS IS
STICKING TO AND ITS WARM/DRY SOLUTION...AS IS THE ECMWF AND ITS
SOLUTION OF COLD WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN...SO FOR NOW...WILL TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOW SOME SMALL WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT /THE FINAL PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST/. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL THERE...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....99





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