Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230825
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  75  52 /  10  40  50   0
FSM   83  59  77  50 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   82  64  77  49 /   0  30  30   0
BVO   83  61  74  47 /  10  50  50   0
FYV   77  55  71  42 /  10  20  60   0
BYV   77  55  72  47 /  10  20  60  10
MKO   82  61  76  49 /  10  30  40   0
MIO   81  60  73  47 /  10  40  60   0
F10   82  63  76  51 /  10  40  30   0
HHW   82  63  80  52 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18





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