Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
321
FXUS64 KTSA 061647
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1047 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR ceilings to the southeast of Interstate 44 will continue
to push to the southeast, clearing MLC and the NW AR terminals
later this afternoon. Mid and high clouds will prevail thereafter
for all the terminals, except MLC/FSM which should see
redevelopment of MVFR ceilings early tomorrow morning. There is
some potential for very light precipitation late in the period at
BVO and the NW AR terminals, but the potential before 07/18Z is
not high enough to mention at this time. Gusty northerly winds
behind today`s front will subside by sunset, with winds below 10
kts and shifting to a more easterly direction by tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 944 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to push southward across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas and is very close to clearing the entire
forecast area. A dense low cloud deck trails the front but some
clearing is evident just to the northwest. Temperatures are not
likely to warm much today, given the front, and it will feel even
cooler due to the gusty north winds likely to last into the
afternoon. The updated forecast, which is already out, mainly
reflects refinements to the Sky cover trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front, currently just south of a OKC/BVO line will sweep across
the area by late morning with low clouds clearing from north to south.
VFR conditions expected behind the front with winds subsiding by late
afternoon. Low clouds will begin to spread back north tonight as upper
wave moves out of the central Rockies with MVFR conditions possible
at MLC/FSM late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few light rain showers lingering across western Arkansas
associated with upper system crossing Mississippi valley. Expect
this activity to be east of the area by 12z. Meanwhile cold front
working its way into northeast OK at present will continue to
push southeast through the day bringing an initial surge of cooler
air. Some patchy fog or drizzle will remain possible until the
front passes this morning, followed by increase in north winds and
clearing of low level moisture from the north.

More significant cold front will arrive Wednesday with
temperatures likely topping out early in the day in northern sections
before turning much colder with gusty north winds returning. In
the upper levels, a broad trough will extend across much of the
central U.S. with some embedded shortwave energy currently over
the Pacific Northwest sliding across the plains by Wednesday
afternoon. Moisture still looks limited in the dendritic growth
layer for most of the day, but a few bands of light snow may brush
across far northern areas Wed afternoon and evening closer to best
mid level forcing. At this time expect only very light if any
accumulating snow, with main impact being much colder temperatures
dropping into the teens in some areas by Thursday morning. Much
below normal temperatures in store Thursday as sfc high continues
to settle over the area, with temperatures bottoming out by Friday
morning. With light north winds continuing, wind chill readings
may approach zero near the Kansas and Missouri borders.

Quick warm up will take place over the weekend, albeit with strong
and gusty south winds developing Saturday ahead of a fast moving
upper wave, which may bring a chance of light rain to eastern
sections by Sat night/Sunday. More or less zonal flow will
continue into the early part of next week, with dry conditions and
temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.