Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 141101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THAT REDUCE
CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG/SOUTH OF INITIAL
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

STRONG/COMPACT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE...LARGE AND/OR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ALONG/NORTH OF STALLED FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHERE WIDESPREAD
3 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO
SHIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10





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