Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 311754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL/LIGHT
WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





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