Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191807
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY 00Z. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST TIME/HEIGHT
PLOT DATA...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN WITH MOIST AIR NEAR THE GROUND COMBINING WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR VSBYS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...THUS INSOLATION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE IT FROM ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS MUCH
AT ALL WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   68  87  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   69  87  66  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   66  89  66  87 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  84  63  83 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   64  83  65  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  67  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   66  86  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
F10   69  87  68  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   68  89  67  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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