Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2014

            Oct 01     Oct 02     Oct 03
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        3          2          1
15-18UT        3          2          1
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2014

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater   15%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight but decreasing chance for an S1 (Minor) or
greater solar radiation storm as large regions decay and rotate around
the west limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2014

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2           65%           55%           45%
R3 or greater   15%           10%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (minor to moderate) radio blackouts become less likely,
with only a chance on October 03, as large regions decay and rotate
around the west limb. A slight chance for an R3 (strong) or greater
event lingers through October 02.


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