Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 12-Feb 14 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 12-Feb 14 2016

            Feb 12     Feb 13     Feb 14
00-03UT        4          3          2
03-06UT        3          3          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        4          3          1
12-15UT        4          2          1
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are expected for the rest of
day one (12 Feb) due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2016

              Feb 12  Feb 13  Feb 14
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm for the forecast period (12-14 Feb) due to the potential for
significant flare activity from Region 2497.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 12 2016 1047 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 12-Feb 14 2016

              Feb 12        Feb 13        Feb 14
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts for the forecast
period (12-14 Feb) due to flare potential from Region 2497.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.