Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 May 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2017

            May 25     May 26     May 27
00-03UT        0          2          4
03-06UT        1          2          4
06-09UT        0          1          3
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        1          3          2
18-21UT        1          4          3
21-00UT        2          4          3

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet conditions
on day one (25 May). Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a
slight chance for G1-Minor storm conditions, by midday on day two (26
May), with the arrival of the 23 May CME. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected to continue on day three (27 May) with CME conditions
persisting.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2017

              May 25  May 26  May 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2017

              May 25        May 26        May 27
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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