Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 150031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 15-Sep 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 15-Sep 17 2014

            Sep 15     Sep 16     Sep 17
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          1          2
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        1          4          2
15-18UT        1          3          2
18-21UT        1          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2014

              Sep 15  Sep 16  Sep 17
S1 or greater   15%     15%      5%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance for
reaching S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on days one and two
(15-16 Sep) if significant flare activity occurs.  Background proton
flux levels are expected for day three (17 Sep).
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 14 2014 0216 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2014

              Sep 15        Sep 16        Sep 17
R1-R2           50%           50%           20%
R3 or greater   15%           15%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio
blackouts and a slight chance for (R3 or greater) radio blackouts over
the next two days (15-16 Sep).  A slight chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts remains on day three (17 Sep) as
Regions 2157 and 2158 begin to rotate around the west limb.



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