Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2013 May 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2013

            May 24     May 25     May 26
00-03UT        2          4          2
03-06UT        3          4          3
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        2          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        4          2          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day 1 (24 May)
associated with the 22 May CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24-May 26 2013

              May 24  May 25  May 26
S1 or greater   99%     60%     30%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected through day 1
(24 May) decreasing to likely through day 2 (25 May).  A chance for an
S1 solar radiation event exists on day 3 (26 May).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24-May 26 2013

              May 24        May 25        May 26
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts all three
days of the forecast period (24 - 26 May) with a slight chance for R3
(Strong) radio blackouts.
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