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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT..CORRECT KWAJALEIN MAY 13 RAINFALL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST TUE MAY 14 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS (RMI) CABINET ON MAY 7TH ISSUED
A STATE OF DISASTER FOR THE NORTHERN RMI...WHICH WAS ELEVATED FROM
THE PREVIOUS STATE OF EMERGENCY.

THE DRY AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS(CNMI) AND GUAM...AND MOST OF CHUUK STATE HAVE RECEIVED
HELPFUL RAIN SHOWERS RECENTLY. A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING WEEKS.

SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS RETREATED SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE AREA OF EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER HAS
BECOME SMALLER AND MAINLY LIES BETWEEN 9 AND 14 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE FROM ABOUT 160 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE TOWARD THE EAST
ACROSS THE DATE LINE.

PERIODS OF VERY DRY WEATHER ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. CLIMATE MODELS ARE PREDICTING ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO SUMMER AND FOR NEAR NORMAL
TRADE-WIND PATTERNS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA IN THE COMING
WEEKS.

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING FOR ATOLLS OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF 9N...INCLUDING BIKINI...ENEWETAK...
RONGELAP...RONGERIK...ALINGINAE...AILUK...LIKIEP...WOTJE...MEJIT
ISLAND AND UTIRIK. ATOLLS FROM MAJURO SOUTHWARD WILL RECEIVE
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL.

MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES IS EXPECTED
FOR GUAM AND ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN OF THE CNMI AND FOR MOST OF
YAP STATE. NORTHERN AREAS OF CHUUK STATE...INCLUDING NAMONUITO ATOLL
AND THE HALL ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME INCREASED RAINFALL IN THE
COMING WEEKS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO AND ARNO...
OCCASIONAL CLUSTERS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE HELPING THE WATER SUPPLIES
ON MAJURO AND ARNO. LATEST DATA FOR MAY 14TH INDICATES THAT THE
MAJURO RESERVOIR WAS A LITTLE OVER HALF FULL WITH 18 MILLION GALLONS
OF WATER.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO...
VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS NORTH OF 8N
TO 9N. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED
AGRICULTURE ON MANY ATOLLS OF THE NORTHERN RMI. SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD
MAY BE NEEDED. WHILE A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF...DRIER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST ATOLLS. MOST OF THE WELL WATER IN
THE NORTHERN ISLANDS HAS BECOME TOO SALTY FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION.
CONSIDERABLE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO DILUTE THE SALTY AQUIFERS. THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE RMI HAS SENT OUT THREE PRELIMINARY DROUGHT
ASSESSMENT TEAMS. THEY HAVE REPORTED VERY SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
IN THE NORTHERN RMI WITH CRITICAL WATER SHORTAGES...DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED FOOD CROPS AND DETERIORATING HEALTH IN MANY LOCATIONS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
MAJURO AND ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
RECENTLY AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR THE MORTLOCKS AND CHUUK LAGOON...
FOR YAP ISLAND...AND FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MUCH OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF
MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE AND FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE AND THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI) AND GUAM...

WATER RESOURCES SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE IN THE CNMI AND ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE ON GUAM. THE MAJOR IMPACT FROM THE VERY DRY WEATHER HAS
BEEN GRASS FIRES...BUT RECENT RAINS HAVE REDUCED THE FIRE DANGER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY JUNE FOR THE CNMI AND GUAM.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO SUMMER.

SOME REGIONAL RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                    JANUARY  FEBRUARY  MARCH   APRIL   MAY 13TH

MARSHALL ISLANDS
MAJURO...              2.42    10.44    5.13    6.46     3.00
KWAJALEIN...           1.22     0.46    1.73    9.34     1.06
UTIRIK...              1.91     1.19    0.37    0.19     0.33
WOTJE...               0.42     0.12    0.12    1.27     0.55

CHUUK STATE
FANANU...              3.10     2.41    4.87    3.93     0.87
ONUON...               9.26     2.13    6.06    4.18     0.39

YAP STATE
YAP...                 5.72     5.86    5.95    2.81     2.40
ULITHI...              3.24     4.81    3.23    4.05     NA
WOLEAI...              6.89     9.39    3.05    9.19     NA

CNMI
SAIPAN...              4.83     2.78    2.40    1.65     3.59
TINIAN...              6.80     2.10    5.30    0.60     3.25
ROTA...                3.91     2.78    3.53    1.74     2.86

GUAM...                5.12     2.95    3.95    1.14     2.91

TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRISK TRADE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...NORTHERN CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO ATOLL AS OF MAY 14TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MAJURO WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO AS OF MAY 14TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS 8N TO 10N LATITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
ENEWETAK...RONGELAP AND UTIRIK COULD RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER INCH UP
TO A HALF INCH WHILE WOTJE COULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MODELS INDICATE
VARIABLE RAINFALL FOR KWAJALEIN ATOLL RANGING FROM NEAR 1 INCH IN
THE NORTH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO AS OF MAY 14TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
TARAWA AREA BUT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST ATOLLS SOUTH OF
MAJURO.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

CHUUK STATE AS OF MAY 14TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN CHUUK STATE AT TIMES...AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CHUUK STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

YAP STATE AS OF MAY 14TH...
YAP STATE HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH
AND EAST. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE EASTERN ATOLLS OF ULITHI...FAIS...
FARAULEP AND SATAWAL COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
WOLEAI SHOULD RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL.

CNMI AND GUAM AS OF MAY 14TH...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ISLANDS OF THE CNMI AND
FOR GUAM WILL RANGE FROM ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DRY WEATHER MAY CAUSE A THREAT OF GRASS FIRES...
AND COASTAL WELLS COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SALINITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR SAIPAN.

OTHER IMPACTS...
THE MAY 13TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS HAVE EXPANDED TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST TO 17 DEGREES NORTH AND 137 DEGREES EAST WITH PATCHY
AREAS SOUTH OF 15 NORTH FROM 137 TO 157 DEGREES EAST. THESE AREAS
AFFECT YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THE FSM AND PALAU SHOULD
MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND
WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML
(LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
WILL BE MAY 28TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. KEEP TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
CHUUK...YAP AND MAJURO...AND THE USAID/OFDA SUBREGIONAL OFFICE IN
MAJURO. WE ALSO THANK THE MAYOR OF WOTJE ATOLL AND THE RTS WEATHER
PEOPLE FOR THEIR IMPORTANT INPUT.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
