Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY ACCORDING TO THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR. EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THROCKMORTON...HASKELL...SHACKELFORD...AND JONES
COUNTIES. IMPACTS OF EXTREME DROUGHT INCLUDE MAJOR CROP AND
PASTURE LOSSES...WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE BIG
COUNTRY. IMPACTS FROM SEVERE DROUGHT INCLUDE: 1. CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES LIKELY...2. WATER SHORTAGES COMMON...AND 3. WATER
RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED. THE REMAINING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...WITH CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES AND WATER SHORTAGES.

HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

AS OF OCTOBER 15TH, THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE A BURN BAN IN
EFFECT...CROCKETT...COLEMAN...BROWN...NOLAN...SHACKELFORD.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS USED BY THE TEXAS FOREST
SERVICE TO GAUGE CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER TO THE POTENTIAL OR
EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED ON A
DAILY BASIS...RANGING FROM 0 TO 800. A VALUE OF 800 INDICATES A
COMPLETELY DRY SOIL...WHILE A 0 REPRESENTS A COMPLETELY SATURATED
SOIL. CURRENTLY...KBDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
500 OR LESS. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE AN INDICATION OF INCREASING
FIRE INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY...THEY ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ERC VALUES RANGE FROM 25-40 CURRENTLY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FALL. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY
FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF
20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED... EXPECT THE FIRE
DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

HTTP://TICC.TAMU.EDU/PREDICTIVESERVICES/DROUGHT.HTM

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

DAYS WERE WARM WITH COOL NIGHTS...AND MANY AREAS RECEIVED RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE WAS SOME HAIL DAMAGE TO COTTON IN THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. PRODUCERS WERE PLANTING SMALL GRAINS. WHEAT
SOWING WAS WELL UNDERWAY. COTTON WAS RAPIDLY MATURING...AND MOST
FIELDS WERE SPRAYED WITH DEFOLIANT. IN GENERAL...COTTON HARVESTING
SHOULD START IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. SOME EARLY PLANTED COTTON WAS
ALREADY HARVESTED WITH REPORTS OF ABOVE AVERAGE YIELDS. ARMYWORMS
INFESTED MANY SMALL GRAIN FIELDS. SOME PRODUCERS WERE ABLE TO TAKE
ANOTHER CUTTING OF HAY DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD CONDITION AS THE
RECENT RAINS HELPED IMPROVE GROWTH OF WINTER GRASSES AND FORAGES.
LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION. STOCK-TANK WATER
LEVELS CONTINUED TO DECLINE AND WERE BECOMING A CONCERN. THE PECAN
HARVEST SHOULD PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. SOME HAND HARVESTING
WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY ON SMALLER...YOUNGER TREES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SO FAR IN OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
HEARTLAND RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SO FAR IN OCTOBER. THE OVERALL TREND WAS BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

AS OF OCTOBER 23...

                      YTD     YTD NORMAL
                   PRECIP         PRECIP    PERCENT OF
STATION           (INCHES)       (INCHES)       NORMAL
------------------------------------------------------
ABILENE             12.05          21.38            56
SAN ANGELO          13.31          18.56            72
JUNCTION            16.03          21.14            76

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...CPC...INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES
OF EL NINO ARE 66 PERCENT DURING THE NOVEMBER TO JANUARY TIME
FRAME.

THE CPC RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY
PREDICTS BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CPC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY
INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS

THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FROM CPC...INDICATES
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
THE USGS WATERWATCH INDICATES THAT CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 23...


/                    CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
/                  ELEVATION       CAPACITY    CAPACITY  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

ABILENE              1988.24           7900         268            3
BROWNWOOD            1411.88         128839       61568           48
COLEMAN              1698.73          38075       12436           33
E.V. SPENCE          1827.08         517272       14294            3
FORT PHANTOM HILL    1618.90          70030       22412           32
HORDS CREEK          1884.76           8443        3276           38
HUBBARD CREEK        1154.17         318067       46739           15
O.C. FISHER          1853.19         119200        1506            1
O.H. IVIE            1509.70         554340       87228            M
OAK CREEK            1975.10          39210        6307           16
STAMFORD             1400.08          51570        5725           11
SWEETWATER           2088.60          12267        1696           14
TWIN BUTTES          1893.14         186200        6727           4
NASWORTHY                  M          10108           M           M

HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

NEXT ISSUANCE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
 AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJT/?N=DROUGHT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7654 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD
SAN ANGELO TEXAS  76904
PHONE: 325-944-9445
NWS.SANANGELO@NOAA.GOV

$$








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